002
FXUS61 KBGM 050310
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1010 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong clipper system will continue bringing snow showers
across Central NY and NE PA, and will intensify overnight
Wednesday. A few snow squalls will be possible Thursday morning
as an Arctic front pushes through. Snow showers will transition
to lake effect snow Thursday night, and will linger in some
areas until Saturday. The steadiest snowfall and greatest
accumulations will be across north Central New York, with lesser
amounts across the Twin Tiers. A warmer storm system looks to
arrive early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
10 PM Update...

Not much change to the previous forecast. Snow has spread across
the region with some light accumulations already on roads and
webcams across the region. So far rates have been less than a
half inch per hour but some heavier snow is headed into NEPA.

710 PM Update...

Snow has been slow to saturate the lower atmosphere and reach
the surface. There is some signs that the lift across CNY is
getting better based off of radar patters over the last hour so
snow should begin to fall at a faster pace. Snow is also moving
in from western NY and PA where surface obs are falling below a
mile in visibility. Winds are gusty across the region so blowing
snow is possible near open fields through the night.

335 PM Update...

A deepening surface low moving over the Great Lakes will bring
gusty winds and snowfall across Central NY and NE PA. More
intense snow showers and squalls look likely starting in the
predawn hours as the Arctic front sweeps through, and 700 mb
temperatures drop dramatically. Continued cold advection, and
increasingly gusty west winds will follow. Conditions will be
favorable for a few snow squalls look mos likely between around
4 AM and 10 AM.

Gusty winds will continue through the day Thursday, which may
cause blizzard-like conditions of dropping visibilities, which
could create hazardous travel conditions starting early morning
Thursday, and last through the day. With the mix of strong
southerly flow shifting to westerly and orographic lift, the
highest snowfall amounts will likely be concentrated on the
areas with higher terrain, such as in Oneida, the hills in
Onondaga-Madison counties, and the Catskills. Snowfall amounts
in these areas are expected to be 4 to 7 inches, with up to 12
inches in Northern Oneida. What will make a big difference to
snowfall amounts is the combination of gusty winds, which will
decrease snow ratios that may not allow snow to accumulate as
much. The main threat for tomorrow will be combination of gusty
winds and snow that result in reduced visibilities that could
create hazardous travel conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

Lake effect snow showers will continue on Friday, mainly over
CNY. There may be a short window in the afternoon where some of
that activity diminishes before another shortwave dives in from
the northwest and enhances the lake effect snow shower activity
again heading into Friday night and Saturday. As the shortwave
swings through Friday night, winds will shift more westerly
and this can lead to the snow showers becoming more
concentrated over areas near and north of the NY Thruway.

Lake effect snow showers will likely continue on Saturday,
especially north of the Thruway. Eventually, ridging and a
warm front lifts northeastward across the area Saturday night
bringing an end to much of the precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM Update...

Ridging builds into the region on Sunday with warmer and drier
conditions. Highs Sunday range from the mid 30s to the low 40s.
Winds become southwesterly Sunday night with lows only falling
into the low to mid 30s.

A couple of disturbances passing near or west of the area are
expected to lead to the return of precipitation Monday and
Tuesday, but with southwesterly flow remaining in place, most of
the precipitation during this timeframe is expected to be in
the form of rain. Temperatures early next week are expected to
be above average with highs in the 40s and some valley areas
even making a return to the 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Light snow has been slow to develop over the region but is
slowly filling in. MVFR and IFR restrictions have been pushed
back a few hours as the lower atmosphere saturates. The bulk of
the snow for all terminals but RME will be between 3Z and 14Z
with snow becoming more showery in the mid to late morning.
Snow showers will contain snow that could drop vis to IFR or
worse but coverage will be limited so chances are lower that a
airport will be hit. Lake effect develops late morning into
early afternoon that will mainly impact SYR and RME. With winds
picking up, any snow that falls will be blowing around tomorrow
so some MVFR vis is possible from blowing snow at all terminals
in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday...Scattered lake effect snow showers possible at the
Central NY terminals, along with occasional restrictions.

Saturday...Some additional lake effect snow showers with
occasional restrictions possible in Central NY.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Scattered snow showers possible, though confidence in
timing is low currently. Restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ040.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM EST Thursday for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ009-018-036-
     037-044>046.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for NYZ015>017-
     022-025-056-057-062.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM EST Thursday for NYZ015>017-
     022>025-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL
SHORT TERM...DK/MPK
LONG TERM...DK/MPK
AVIATION...AJG/KL