675
FXUS61 KBGM 241046
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
646 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the region today and tonight. A cooler air mass will then move in on
Monday and stick around throughout the week. Isolated showers will
also be possible through midweek, mainly over Central NY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
215 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and storms
  to the region today - potential for training showers/storms
  could lead to localized flash flooding and isolated storms may
  become strong to severe

* Cooler with lake effect rain showers across much of CNY through
  midweek

* Conditions remain cool through the end of the week - trending
  drier as well though cannot rule out isolated showers near end of
  the work week

Discussion:

    ...Now through Tonight...

A slow moving front will support scattered showers today and
tonight. Cloud cover will increase through the morning hours but
some breaks of sunshine will be possible. This will lead to the
environment becoming unstable enough to support scattered
thunderstorms as SBCAPE values will increase to around 1000 J/kg.
Strong mid to low level flow will lead to 0-6 km shear of 30 to 40
kts. SPC has included most of the region in a Marginal Risk. Drier
air in the mid levels and deep convection would lead to some
stronger gusts. Small to large hail is also possible as lapse
rate are more favorable than they have been in past events but
still not too high. Instability also extends into the hail
growth zone.

The main concern today will be localized heavy rainfall. The shear
vectors line up with the frontal boundary which favors training
and backbuilding showers and storms late this afternoon through
late this evening. Across a narrow portion of CNY, total
rainfall through tonight could total between 2 to 3 inches. This
forecast has the highest QPF extending from the Finger Lakes up
through the Mohawk Valley though some uncertainty remains on
the exact location of this band. Dry weather conditions over the
past few days and soil moisture near or slightly below normal
would suggest hydro issues will not be much of a concern.
However, if 3 inches were to fall over a metro or poor drainage
area, concerns for localized hydro issues increase. This matches
WPC`s thinking as a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall was
maintained for most of the region.

Temperatures will be fairly warm today and climb into the 70s and
low 80s today. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

    ...Monday Through Wednesday...

The front exits the region Monday with a cooler air mass filtering
in behind it. Combined with northwest flow and weak waves riding
along a broad upper level trough, lake enhanced showers will be
possible over portions of CNY through Wednesday morning. On Tuesday,
some showers will extend further south into NEPA and the Catskills.
Due to the lake effect set up, NAM and CMCReg guidance were blended
in with the NBM for PoPs this period. Some manual edits were also
made for better collaboration with surrounding offices. By Wednesday
afternoon, drier air and high pressure will begin to build into the
region and cutoff any remaining showers.

During this period, temperatures will trend cooler. Highs by
Wednesday will be in the 60s and low 70s. Nightly temperatures fall
into the 40s for most of the region.

    ...Thursday through Saturday...

High pressure will remain in control for the second half of the week.
Another front near the end of the work week will try to overcome
drier air and support showers. Model guidance do show periods of
moisture both Thursday and Friday, so slight chance (<25%) PoPs are
reasonable for this time period. Temperatures will trend slightly
warmer but remain below late August normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A pre-frontal trough is bring in scattered showers and/or
MVFR ceilings in early morning. Modest improvement will occur
late morning, only for showers and thunderstorms to develop
along the advancing front itself. Though all terminals
eventually get showers, there is uncertainty for whether thunder
will reach all the way to KAVP. TEMPO CB groups have been
included for the NY terminals at appropriate time windows late
afternoon-early evening. MVFR conditions are generally expected
with any storm, but if a terminal gets squarely hit by a heavier
cell then brief IFR possible. Winds generally south-southwest
ahead of the front today, veering to light west while slackening
then becoming variable behind the front, though there could be
erratic stronger gusts from individual storm cells. Restrictive
valley fog will develop at KELM in the wake of the front as
clouds scatter during the pre-dawn hours; possibly other
terminals including KRME. KBGM-KAVP should at least manage to
drop into fuel alternate required ceilings late tonight.

Outlook...

Monday through midday Wednesday...Scattered showers may bring
occasional minor restrictions, especially Central NY terminals
due to lake-enhancement.

Late Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
DISCUSSION...AJG/BTL
AVIATION...MDP