384
FXUS61 KBGM 191054
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures are expected today along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon. A brief
cool down on Sunday will be followed by warmer temperatures for
much of the remainder of next week. Aside from scattered
showers on Monday, much of the upcoming week will feature dry
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
650 AM Update:

Made some tweaks to PoPs for the next few hours with a cluster
of showers and some thunderstorms approaching parts of the
Finger Lakes Region from Western NY. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.

400 AM Update:

A summer-like day is in store today with very warm temperatures,
along with scattered showers and thunderstorms (especially this
afternoon).

Rain-free weather is present early this morning with
any rain associated with a warm front and a remnant MCS located
mainly north of Lake Ontario/in Ontario, Canada. An EML plume is
overhead, but this is well ahead of the shortwave, so there
really isn`t a source of lift for showers and thunderstorms
right now. Temperatures overnight/early this morning have
remained nearly steady in the upper 50s to upper 60s and have
even risen a few degrees.

While many of the CAMS have a round of showers moving through
parts of the area by the mid-morning, chances are that this
mostly remains north of the area besides parts of the Finger
Lakes Region, especially looking at observations/radar trends
upstream. Skies will be mostly cloudy this morning, but if some
breaks in the sun occur, temperatures will rise even quicker
than expected and there may be more instability present for this
afternoon`s round of showers and thunderstorms. By early this
afternoon, temperatures are expected to be quite warm for this
time of the year; mainly in the 70s, and even some readings in
the lower 80s for some of the valley locations (especially
Northeast PA).

A cold front will move through during the afternoon hours, which
will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. Modeled shear
is rather impressive (60-70kts 0-6km bulk shear), but
instability will be questionable. As is typical, the NAM is the
highest for modeled instability with up to around 1000 J/kg, but
the GFS is much lower (just a few hundred J/kg of shear).
Another potential limiting factor would be relatively poor lapse
rates as the EML plume that is currently overhead early this
morning will be long gone by this afternoon. All of this being
said, there will be the potential for locally damaging winds in
any thunderstorms this afternoon and as a result SPC has
included most of the area (minus the Poconos-Catskills) in a
"Marginal Risk" for Severe Thunderstorms in their Day 1
Convective Outlook.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually end this evening as the
cold front moves east of the area and cooler, more stable air
moves in. Skies will gradually clear as the night progresses.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the mid 30s to
mid 40s.

Much quieter weather is expected on Sunday as high pressure will
be in control. Mostly sunny skies are expected, along with much
cooler temperatures. High temperatures are expected to be in the
lower 50s to lower 60s, so this is actually only slightly below
normal for this time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
215 AM Update...

High pressure and ridging will continue to build over the region
Sunday night. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes on
Monday, with a warm front pushing into our region. A few rain
showers will be possible through the day Monday with the warm
front. Monday night, a trailing cold front pushes through with
more showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Instability
looking very weak at this time, so no severe storms are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
215 AM Update...

Pattern is looking fairly quiet for next week as high pressure
controls conditions through at least Thursday. Ridging overhead
will bring warm conditions and and above average temperatures
with highs generally in the 60s and low 70s. Models diverge
quite a bit in handling the positioning and strength of the
broad ridging after about Wednesday and any subtle waves passing
over the top, with individual deterministic guidance showing
polar opposite solutions in some time periods. Stuck with NBM
guidance on this lower confidence forecast, which suggests the
next fairly robust probability for noticeable shower activity
comes Friday into Friday night at the very end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain showers will move in by the mid to morning, which may
result in some MVFR restrictions at KSYR and KRME. Otherwise,
the majority of the restrictions at the rest of the terminals
will likely hold off until this afternoon with a batch of
heavier showers moving through. Thunder will be possible as
well, but confidence was only high enough to include thunder in
the TAF at KBGM, KELM, and KITH at this time.

Rain showers will move out of the area this evening, but some
lingering MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected to persist
through the evening for most terminals. Mainly VFR conditions
are expected to return after 06Z tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Chance of showers and possible restrictions.

Tuesday...Becoming mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...JAB/MPK
LONG TERM...JAB/MPK
AVIATION...BJG