073
FGUS63 KKRF 221407
ESGBGH

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
237 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:WIND R AT DUBOIS WY 6NW
DUBW4               5.0   5.5   6.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WIND R ABV RED CR AT DUBOIS WY 12SE
WRCW4               9.5  10.0  10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WIND R AT CROWHEART WY 10SE
CROW4              10.0  10.5  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WIND R AT KINNEAR WY 2SW
KINW4               9.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WIND R AT RIVERTON WY 1SE
WDRW4               9.0  11.0  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE WIND R AT RIVERTON WY 2SE
RVTW4               8.0  10.0  11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIGHORN R AT BASIN WY
BHBW4              10.5  11.0  13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIGHORN R AT GREYBULL WY
GYBW4              92.0  93.5  95.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N FK SHOSHONE R AT WAPITI WY 5E
NFSW4               8.0   9.0  10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:S FK SHOSHONE R AT BUFFALO BILL WY ABV
BBRW4               9.5  10.5  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SHOSHONE R AT LOVELL WY 2W
SLOW4              11.0  11.5  12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211437/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:WIND R
DUBW4       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5

:WIND R ABV RED CR
WRCW4       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6

:WIND R
CROW4       5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6
KINW4       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6
WDRW4       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.7

:LITTLE WIND R
RVTW4       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.4

:BIGHORN R
BHBW4       4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2
GYBW4      82.8/   82.8/   82.8/   82.8/   82.8/   82.8/   82.8

:N FK SHOSHONE R
NFSW4       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2

:S FK SHOSHONE R
BBRW4       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4

:SHOSHONE R
SLOW4       5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.4/    5.4/    5.4
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410211437/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:WIND R
DUBW4       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3

:WIND R ABV RED CR
WRCW4       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3

:WIND R
CROW4       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4
KINW4       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
WDRW4       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0

:LITTLE WIND R
RVTW4       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9

:BIGHORN R
BHBW4       3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
GYBW4      81.8/   81.8/   81.8/   81.8/   81.8/   81.8/   81.8

:N FK SHOSHONE R
NFSW4       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0

:S FK SHOSHONE R
BBRW4       4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3

:SHOSHONE R
SLOW4       3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$