Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
783 WTNT35 KNHC 091743 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 200 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...JERRY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 60.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Anguilla. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Barthelemy and St. Martin. The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and St. Eustatius * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 60.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected by the evening, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands this evening and tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area and are possible in the watch area later today into early Friday. RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi