839
WTNT25 KNHC 111443
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  28.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  28.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  27.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.5N  31.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N  35.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.1N  38.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.1N  41.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N  45.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N  48.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.6N  54.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 21.5N  60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  28.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN