661
FONT15 KNHC 210846
PWSAT5

HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052025
0900 UTC THU AUG 21 2025

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

WALLOPS CDA    34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NORFOLK VA     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BERG