654
WTNT42 KNHC 060244
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Kirk is gradually succumbing to the effects of increasing vertical
wind shear.  Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye is
becoming more ragged and cloud-filled, and the southwestern quadrant
is wrapping in more dry air.  Dvorak estimates have decreased this
cycle and the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt, closest to the
TAFB estimate of 102 kt.

The hurricane is moving northward at 17 kt in the flow between a
deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge
centered over the eastern Atlantic.  Model guidance remains tightly
clustered, and very few changes have been made to the latest
official track forecast which lie close to the various consensus
aids.  Kirk is expected to move north of the Azores on Monday and
move over western Europe Tuesday evening or Wednesday.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become less
conducive in the coming days.  Vertical wind shear should become
quite strong later Sunday, and Kirk is expected to cross the 26
degree C isotherm Sunday evening.  Global models predict Kirk to
become an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday and to then be absorbed
into a larger extratropical system later this week over northern
Europe.  The latest NHC intensity forecast now reflects these
changes.

Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from
the hurricane. These large swells have increased the risk of
dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda,
and the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the U.S. East
Coast. By Sunday, swells are expected to spread northward along the
eastern seaboard and reach the Azores by Monday. For more
information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 31.3N  49.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 34.0N  48.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 37.6N  44.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 40.7N  39.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 42.8N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  08/1200Z 43.7N  24.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/0000Z 44.1N  15.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0000Z 49.5N   3.7E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci