513
WTNT42 KNHC 300239
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The depression is gradually becoming better organized while
continuing to produce a large area of deep convection. Recent
scatterometer winds indicate the center of the system lies on the
northern side of the convective cloud mass, with 25-30 kt winds
noted within the eastern semicircle of the circulation and weaker
winds on the west side. Based on the scatterometer data, the system
remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory.

The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt, to the south of an
established subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This
feature should keep the tropical cyclone on a westward to
west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days. Then, a
northwestward turn is forecast later this week as a deep-layer
trough over the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. This
recurvature over open waters is supported by the latest track
guidance and global model ensembles, and the updated NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with no
notable changes.

Intensification is expected due to very favorable environmental and
oceanic conditions. The tropical cyclone will move over SSTs warmer
than 29C during the next several days, within a moist and unstable
environment with weak deep-layer shear. Once the system becomes more
consolidated and establishes an inner core, its rate of
strengthening is likely to increase. The latest NHC intensity
forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN multi-model consensus
aids, which brings the system to hurricane strength in 48 h and
major hurricane intensity by day 5. In addition, the system is
forecast to become a large hurricane, with an expanding wind and
wave field as it gains latitude later in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 13.9N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 14.0N  34.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 14.2N  36.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 14.5N  38.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 15.2N  40.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 16.4N  42.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 17.8N  43.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 20.5N  46.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 22.5N  48.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart