013
WTNT42 KNHC 061456
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Most of Kirk`s convection is now located in its northeastern
semicircle as a result of increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear over the cyclone.  Satellite intensity estimates continue to
decrease, with the latest subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB at
T-4.5/77 kt.  Some of the objective CIMSS intensity estimates are
still a bit higher, and the initial intensity is set to 85 kt, in
agreement with the objective estimates.

Kirk is expected to continue to weaken during the next several days
due to strong southwesterly wind shear, which is expected to
increase even more after 24 h.  Also, the hurricane will reach
cooler sea-surface temperature below 26C in about 12 hours.  Global
models indicate that Kirk should undergo extratropical transition
soon, and the transition should be complete in about 36 h.  Kirk`s
wind field is expected to remain quite large, which will continue to
generate a very large area of dangerous seas over the Atlantic. The
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and
lies near the middle of the guidance.

Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast, or 020/22 kt within the
flow between an eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge and a deep-layer
trough to the west of Kirk.  The track guidance continues to be in
fairly good agreement that Kirk will accelerate while turning
northeastward and east-northeastward over the next couple of days.
The NHC forecast is close to the previous prediction, and shows Kirk
passing north of the Azores Monday night and Tuesday as an
extratropical cyclone, then moving over portions of western Europe
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

Large swells from Kirk are propagating far away from the hurricane
and bringing an increased risk of dangerous surf and rip currents to
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are
expected to spread toward the Azores on Monday. For more information
on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office.

The initial wind radii have been increased based on data from a
recent ASCAT pass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 35.6N  47.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 38.1N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 41.1N  39.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 43.1N  33.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1200Z 43.8N  25.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  09/0000Z 44.5N  15.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/1200Z 46.7N   6.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/1200Z 52.5N   9.0E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen