Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
700
FONT12 KNHC 010857
PWSAT2
HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 5(33)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 10(40)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 3(40)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CURACAO 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 9(47) 1(48)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 51(55) 1(56) X(56)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 55(66) X(66) X(66)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) X(32)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 28(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
PONCE PR 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SABA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUADELOUPE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AVES 34 3 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
DOMINICA 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARTINIQUE 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT LUCIA 34 61 X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
SAINT LUCIA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT VINCENT 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
SAINT VINCENT 50 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
SAINT VINCENT 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARBADOS 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
GRENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRENADA 50 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
GRENADA 64 49 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORT OF SPAIN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JUANGRIEGO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE