796
WTNT41 KNHC 241456
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062025
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

Fernand has become a bit better organized during the past few
hours.  Convection has reformed with a banding pattern around the
center, with some expanding outflow.  Satellite intensity estimates
are about the same as before, so the initial intensity will remain
35 kt, though some of the objective estimates have recently
increased.

The storm has been moving through an environment that is somewhat
drier with more shear than anticipated.  Consequently, Fernand
has changed little overnight.  The environment still should support
some gradual strengthening, which is the general idea of the model
guidance.  The new NHC forecast is about the same as the last one,
with a similar peak occuring on Monday, perhaps a bit sooner than
earlier thinking.  Decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should
cause weakening later on Tuesday, with extratropical transition
anticipated early Wednesday and a quick dissipation on Thursday.

The initial motion is 020/13 kt.  Fernand is forecast to move
on this general course for the next couple of days around the
northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge.  The storm will likely
be embedded in the mid-latitude flow by late Tuesday, causing a
faster track to the northeast.  While the model guidance remains in
good agreement, guidance has been shifting eastward to time, which
the Google Deep Mind (GDMI) model first sniffed out yesterday.  The
new NHC forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope
and is east of the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 31.0N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 32.6N  59.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 34.8N  57.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 36.9N  56.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 39.3N  54.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 42.0N  51.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 44.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake