378
WTNT41 KNHC 300837
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Joyce`s center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep
convection forming intermittently within the circulation.  Joyce
continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear
due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic.  The
current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective
AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS.  This may be a generous
estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system.

The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of
westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt.
It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by
the low-level flow.  Therefore the official track forecast is
slower than the previous predictions.  This is similar to the
motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a
very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or
two.

Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and
the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate
into a remnant low.  The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one.  The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60
hours if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 22.1N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 22.8N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/0600Z 23.6N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1800Z 24.7N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0600Z 25.8N  49.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch