712
ABNT20 KNHC 211154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands show
some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or
so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and
a short-lived tropical depression could form.  In a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing limited showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development
while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch