496
AXNT20 KNHC 240855
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fernand: Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near
29.7N 60.7W at 24/0900 UTC or 260 nm SE of Bermuda, moving NNE at
13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are
currently near 5.0 m, or 16 ft. Numerous moderate convection is
noted within 90 nm in the NW semicircle and 30 nm in the SE
semicircle of the system. Similar convection is noted from 28.5N
to 31N between 58W and 60W. Fernand is moving toward the north-
northeast and this motion is expected to continue for the next
day or two, followed by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast
track, Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the
open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next 48 hours. A weakening trend is
expected by Tuesday.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99): During the past several
hours, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave,
AL99, located about 390 nautical miles east of the Windward
Islands near 12.5N54W have changed little in organization.
Numerous moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 54W
and 58.5W. Associated winds are currently fresh to strong with
seas of 2.5 to 3.0 m, or 8 to 10 ft. This system could become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves
quickly westward at about 20 to 25 kt, passing through the
Windward and Leeward Islands late today or tonight. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today and
Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean on
Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less favorable
for additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
There is a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours and
the next 7 days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Fernand NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands from 22N southward to near 08N. The wave is
moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Nearby convection has
diminished and is isolated at best.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 54W,
from 21N southward through a 1010 mb low (AL99) near 12.5N54W to
French Guiana, moving west at around 20 kt. Refer to the Special
Features section above for more details on these features.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from 20N in central
Haiti southward to near the NW border of Venezuela with Colombia,
moving westward around 20 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that
the tropical wave envelope is large and extends across most of
the eastern and central Caribbean, where widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are evident.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and extends southwestward to near 10N42W.
The ITCZ then extends from 10N42W to 13N51W where it is broken by
the tropical wave associated with AL99. The ITCZ then resumes
near 11N55.5WW and runs SW to 08.5N60W at the border of Guyana and
Venezuela. Other than the convection described with the Special
Features and in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate is
noted from 05N to 12N within 270 nm of the coast of Africa.
Similar convection is found on satellite imagery within 120 nm S
of the ITCZ between 42W and 50W, and from 08N to 10.5N between 58W
and 61W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring generally S of 15N and W of 76W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
central and northern Gulf waters north of 23.5N. Moderate to
locally fresh E to NE winds are noted north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate anticyclone winds prevail across the rest of
the Gulf with a ridge noted along 25N/26N, with 1-3 ft seas,
locally higher in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue over the
Gulf region through the period, maintaining mostly tranquil marine
conditions. A stationary front will linger along the northern
Gulf coast into the early part of the week supporting numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms mainly N of 22N. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each
afternoon through at least the middle of next week as a trough
develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections
above.

Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across much of
the central Caribbean, due to the moderate pressure gradient in
place between higher pressure N of the region and the 1010
Colombia Low. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail in
the E Caribbean, Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras, with
locally higher seas in the NE and E Atlantic Passages. The
remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to locally
rough seas will return to the south-central Caribbean this evening
through Sun as central Atlantic high pressure builds W-SW across
the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds will then expand
across most of central and eastern portions, and the Windward
Passage, Sun night through Wed as a strong tropical wave moves
through the basin. Locally heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and
squalls and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this tropical
wave across east and central portions Sun evening through late
Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse across the Gulf of
Honduras at night through Tue. NW to N swell will build across the
tropical Atlantic waters and move through the Atlantic Passages
tonight through early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fernand and Invest Area AL99. Please see the
TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Residual northerly swell from distant Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin
continues to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic.
8-11 ft seas, with periods of 14-18 seconds, are analyzed N of
23N between 38W and 74W. Please note the locally different sea
state within this area near Tropical Storm Fernand, which is
described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Off the SE US coast, a
warm front lifting north of the discussion waters is leading to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms generally north of 24N
and W of 73W. In the deep tropical Atlantic away from the
aforementioned features, moderate to locally fresh trades are
analyzed from 11N to 20N and west of 50W. Moderate or weaker
trades prevail elsewhere across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in
open waters.

For the forecast, Fernand will move to just N of the area at
31.3N 60.1W this afternoon, then continuing away from the area to
33.6N 59.1W Mon morning. Central Atlantic high pressure will then
build W-SW and into the NW Bahamas Mon through Wed. Meanwhile,
large northerly swell generated by distant extratropical cyclone
Erin will continue to affect the W Atlantic waters through the
next couple of days. A stationary front will linger off the SE
U.S. coast into the early part of the week with fresh winds SE of
it. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola Mon afternoon
through Tue afternoon. Tranquil marine conditions may prevail by
the end of next week.

$$
Lewitsky