252
AXNT20 KNHC 082110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jul 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 17N
southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are observed on satellite near the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 18N southward to
the coast of French Guiana, and moving west around 10 kt. No
significant convection or shower activity is noted with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from central
Hispaniola southward to far western Venezuela. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over portions of
Venezuela, as well as portions of Colombia.

Another tropical wave is near 92.5W from the eastern Bay of
Campeche southward across southern Mexico into the East Pacific,
and moving west around 20 kt. This wave is helping to enhance some
convection in the central and SW Gulf of America as described in
that section below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
near El Mamghar, then reaches southwestward passing just south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to 05.5N36W. The ITCZ continues west-
northwestward from 05.5N36W to 09N51W, then westward from 09.5N53W
to across Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 13N between Africa and 28W, and from 07N to
09.5N between 57W and 59W just N of the coast of Guyana.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An elongated upper-level low across the western Gulf combined with
the northern portion of a passing tropical wave is triggering
scattered moderate convection over portions of the central and
western Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs east to west from a
1022 mb high in the E-central Gulf near 27N86W. This feature is
supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas N of 26N and
E of 91W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf, except NE to E winds in the SE
and S-central Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the
basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
will pulse along and just N of the Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and then
drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large, elongated upper-level low is producing widely scattered
moderate convection over the central and NW portions of the basin,
including near the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong ENE to E
winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft exist in the central Caribbean per
recent altimeter and buoy data. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and 5
to 6 ft seas are in the eastern Caribbean, with mainly moderate
ENE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh
to strong trades and rough seas across the S-central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong E winds are expected
in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the
week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in
the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Enhanced by an upper-level through in the vicinity, two surface
troughs are producing scattered heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms over portions of the central and northern Bahamas
and the adjacent waters from 24N to 31N between 69W and 79W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1028 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft
seas N of 27N between 45W and 65W. Similar winds are found W of
77W offshore Florida, with seas of 1 to 3 ft there. Moderate to
fresh mainly ESE winds are found from 11N to 25N between 55W and
77W, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
dominate the remainder of the Atlantic waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft
in old NE swell are found from 14N to 26N between 25W and 43W,
with 4 to 6 ft seas across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas through the week.
This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds, except for
fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola
through Sat night.

$$
Lewitsky