318
AXNT20 KNHC 042347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Dec 05 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near to 07N11W to 04N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
02N30W to 02N40W and to near 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 09N between 11W and 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A a stationary front extends from a 1020 mb low located inland
over eastern Texas to near Corpus Christi and south-southwest
from there to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. A warm front
stretches from the same low to just southeast of southeastern
Louisiana while a cold front has pushed to just southeast of
the basin over the lower Straits of Florida. A very moist
southerly flow over the western half of the Gulf that is
primarily to the south of the warm front and east of the
stationary front is bringing broken to scattered low and mid-
level clouds to that part of the Gulf. Patches of rain along
with possible scattered showers and within these clouds.
Strong high pressure of 1030 mb is analyzed over the
southeastern United States, with its associated broad ridging
covering the eastern and central sections of the basin. The
associated gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast
winds to exist over the far southern parts of the southeastern
and central Gulf. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. An ASCAT
satellite data pass revealed fresh to strong southeast to south
winds over the western Gulf, mainly N of 22N and west of 93W.
Seas are 7 to 9 ft are being sustained by these winds. Gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the previously mentioned warm and stationary
fronts will dissipate over the Gulf by early on Thu. High
pressure building north of the front over the southeastern
United States will maintain fresh to strong SE winds over the
western Gulf into tonight, accompanied by rough seas and
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, a weak cold
front will reach the northern Gulf coast Thu, stall across the
central Gulf by late Fri before dissipating Sat. Broad high
pressure and associated ridging will build across the basin Thu
night into Mon, thus supporting moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds basin-wide Fri night through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong northeast winds are over the western Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage, where NE winds to 30 kt were
indicated on ASCAT satellite data pass today. Both altimeter
satellite data and recent buoy data indicate rough seas across
the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
to rough seas are evident elsewhere, except near the coast of
Colombia where fresh to strong winds are noted. A concentrated
area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the western part of the sea, roughly from 13N to 16N between
78W and the coast of northeastern Nicaragua. Some of this
activity is exhibiting frequent lightning.

Of note, a recent cold front passage across Cuba and western
Jamaica lowered the temperatures over some sections of western
Cuba to nearly 10 degrees below normal expected ranges for this
time of the year.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will
continue to support strong to near-gale northeast winds and
rough seas over most of the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage
through tonight, and fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia
today through Mon night. The high pressure will weaken and shift
eastward Thu, allowing winds and seas to briefly diminish to
mainly fresh speeds. Northeast swell will lead to seas of 8 to
10 ft for Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands into Thu.
Looking ahead, high pressure will build again north of the area
over the western Atlantic Thu night and prevail through the
weekend. This will resume fresh to strong northeast to east
winds across the northwestern Caribbean Thu night, and in the
Windward Passage and central Caribbean from Sat night through
Mon night. Moderate to rough seas expected across these regions
through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A very progressive, winter-type pattern, continues over the area
conducive to driving a series of cold fronts across the western
Atlantic while the remainder of the forecast area remains under
the influence of a strong 1032 mb high pressure center that is
situated east of the Azores near 37N21W. The pressure gradient
between the high pressure and lower pressure over NW Africa is
promoting an area of fresh to strong northeast winds north of
22N and east of 23W, including the western Canary Islands.
This pattern is supporting mostly fresh northeast to east winds
and seas in the 7 to 10 ft range elsewhere east of about 60W. A
cold front extends from near 31N53W to 25N60W and to the
northwest coast of Haiti. A reinforcing cold front stretches
from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of
Florida. Broken to  overcast clouds with patches of light to
moderate rain along with scattered showers are between the
fronts. Isolated thunderstorms are possible north of 27N between
the fronts as well. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are
present near the southern end of the first front, especially
from 20N to 24N between 67W and 75W, including approaches to the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough
seas are noted elsewhere ahead and behind the aforementioned
cold fronts.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate northwest winds and seas
follow a leading cold front reaching from near 31N53W to north-
central Hispaniola. A second, reinforcing cold front, extends
from 31N65W to Andros Island to the Straits of Florida. Fresh N
to NW winds and moderate seas are ongoing west of this front to
76W and N of 25N. The fronts will merge tonight and then stall
before dissipating late on Thu. High pressure building in behind
the merged front will continue to support strong northeast
winds south of 25N, offshore Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through
early Thu morning. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move
into the waters off northeast Florida late Thu into Fri, bringing
large NW swell to the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda north of 28N through Sun.

$$
Aguirre