312
AXNT20 KNHC 152110
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Remnants Of Lorenzo is centered near 23.1N 42.5W at 15/2100
UTC or 1130 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NE at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are estimated
to be around 12-14 ft (4.0-4.5 m). Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 21N to 24N between 42W and 45W.
Visible satellite imagery shows that Lorenzo no longer has a
well-defined circulation and has dissipated. Recent microwave
imagery also suggested that the system had opened to its west. The
remnants are moving toward the NE and this motion is expected to
continue with a faster forward speed for the next day. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the final
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 27.5W, from 06N to 15N just WSW of
the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at around 15 kt. Nearby
convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ below.

A tropical wave extends along 41.5W, from 03N to 14N, moving W at
at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon
trough/ITCZ below.

The tropical wave that was previously analyzed near 57W/58W has
become ill defined and absorbed into a broader deep layered
troughing. A surface trough is now analyzed from 20N57W to
14N59.5W to the N of Barbados. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 16N to 19N between 54W and the trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal
near 14.5N16.5W to 08N25.5W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends from
06N42W to near the coast of French Guiana and Suriname at 06N44.5W
then NW to along the coasts of Guyana and Venezuela and into the
SE Caribbean Sea at 12N66W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 11N between 25W and 38W, and from 03N to 10N
between 38W and 50W.

Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring near
the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough in the SW
Caribbean Sea, from 08.5N to 15N between 78W and 84W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the S-central Gulf, extending
from 26N89W through the Yucatan Channel and into the NW Caribbean
Sea. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed on
conventional satellite imagery near the axis just to the NNW of
the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, broad high pressure is over the
basin. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted S of 27N and
E of the trough. Mainly gentle NE-E winds are elsewhere, except
moderate NW just offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are 3-5 ft in the
SE Gulf to the E of the trough, 1-3 ft in the NW Gulf, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region this week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas over much of the basin. Winds are forecast to
increase to fresh speeds over the eastern Gulf Thu night through
Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area.
Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as high
pressure over the SE United States shifts eastward into the
western Atlantic.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The passage of two cold fronts over the SW N Atlantic waters and
the presence of now the Remnants of Lorenzo in the central
Atlantic continues to support a weak pressure pattern in the
Caribbean, resulting in mainly light to gentle winds, except for
locally moderate southeasterly winds over the far southeast
portions. This is supporting slight seas basin-wide. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the SE Caribbean
where the ITCZ terminates and with deep layered troughing off to
the NE, which could lead to locally higher winds and seas at the
surface.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the NW
Caribbean through Thu, then will be reinforced by Fri. Moderate to
locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of
the front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and
ahead of the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient
will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate
seas over much of the basin through Sat. The trade winds will
become mainly fresh across the eastern Caribbean by Sat evening as
a well defined tropical wave approaches the Lesser Antilles. The
tropical wave is forecast to move across the E Caribbean on Sun
and fresh trades will extend to the central basin waters. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the wave axis.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details
on now the Remnants of Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N59W to the SE Bahamas and then along
the N coast of Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 180-240 nm SE of the front. Fresh
to strong SW winds are N of 25N and E of the front to around 55W
where seas are also 6-9 ft, locally higher in and near convection.
A reinforcing cold front is not far behind, extending from just SE
of Bermuda near 31N63.5W to 27N73.5W to just N of Cape Canaveral,
Florida. No deep convection is noted with this reinforcing and
trailing front, however fresh to strong winds and 6-9 ft seas are
found N of 25N.

To the E, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms cover a
broad area across the waters N of 26N and E of a surface trough
which is analyzed from 31N42W to 26N48W. A large area of strong to
near gale-force winds is noted N of 26N within 420-600 nm ahead
of the trough. Seas are 8-14 ft across these waters. A broad ridge
extends from the Canary Islands SW through parent 1017 mb high
pressure found near 23N27W, continuing to 15N53W in the wake of
Lorenzo. Gentle anticyclonic winds are found under this ridge.
Winds are mainly moderate across the remainder of the Tropical
Atlantic waters, except moderate to fresh from 11N to 20N between
the coast of Africa through the Cabo Verde Islands to 30W. Seas
are 3-5 ft across the area S of 25N and W of 58W, 4-7 ft between
40W and 59W, 4-6 ft between 20W and 40W, and 3-5 ft E of 20W.

For the forecast W of 55W, A cold front extending from 31N62W
across the SE Bahamas and western Cuba will move SE across the
forecast waters through Fri before dissipating. The front will be
reinforcing tonight, reaching from 31N60W to 21N75W by Thu
morning, and from 31N55W to Hispaniola by Fri morning. Another
reinforcing front will follow the main front, and it is forecast
to extend from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida by Fri morning.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side
of the front mainly across the waters N of 25N through at least
Sat.

$$
Lewitsky