049
AXNT20 KNHC 052327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Milton is centered near 22.7N 95.5W at 05/2100
UTC or 210 nm N of Veracruz Mexico, moving NNE at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 75 nm SW and 30 nm NE semicircles
of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen elsewhere from 23N to 26N between 91W and 95W. Peak seas are
estimated at 14 ft. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to
remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night,
then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by
midweek. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the
next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday
night, and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches
the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by mid week. There is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts
for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning
late Tuesday or Wednesday. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact
portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with
heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later
on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the
risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding. Swells generated by the system will
begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
tonight. These swells are expected to spread northward and
eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These
swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Hurricane Kirk is centered near 29.6N 50.0W at 05/2100 UTC or
990 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving N at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are
estimated at 46 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
within 60 nm of center, except 90 nm NE quadrant. Kirk is moving
toward the north and this motion is expected to continue through
tonight. A faster northeastward motion is expected on Sunday and
Monday. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next
week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple
of days. Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward
Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are
expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas tonight and Sunday, and
to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Leslie is centered near 11.6N 36.0W at 05/2100 UTC or
700 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at
7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are
estimated at around 26 ft. Leslie is moving toward the west-
northwest. A northwestward motion with an increase in forward
speed is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through
Tuesday. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Tropical
Storm Milton, Hurricane Kirk, and Hurricane Leslie at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands with its axis along 26W south of 18N.It is moving west
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the
northern end of the wave axis affecting parts of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends
SW to 07N22W. No additional monsoon trough or ITCZ is analyzed
farther west due to the presence of Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie.
Scattered showers are in the general vicinity of the monsoon
trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information about Tropical Storm Milton.

A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and runs from
27N89W across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are mainly on the E side of the trough
axis. This convective active extends eastward across parts of SW
Florida and the Florida Keys. Convection is also flaring up over
the Yucatan Peninsula. The most recent scatterometer data confirmed
the well-defined circulation of Milton as well as an area of fresh
to strong NE winds over the north-central part of the Gulf.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are observed. Seas of 3 to 5
ft are analyzed across much of the northern and western Gulf away
from Milton. Across the southern and eastern Gulf, seas of 1 to
3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Milton is forecast to reach near 23.1N 91.2W
Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt,
and continue to strengthen as it reaches near 23.8N 89.3W late
Mon night, to near 24.8N 87.2W Tue afternoon with maximum
sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt and change little in
intensity as it moves to near 27.7N 83.0W by Wed afternoon, and
track across central Florida into Wed night. Increasing winds and
seas are expected over most of the northern and western Gulf
sections beginning Sun. Conditions should improve across the
basin once Milton departs the basin. Swells generated by Milton
are expected to affect most of the Gulf by early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent pattern aloft covers the NW Caribbean and the SE Gulf
of Mexico while an upper-level trough extends from the Windward
Passage to the SW Caribbean. This upper-level pattern is helping
to induce convection over the Greater Antilles, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and the central and SW parts of the basin. Low topped
trade wind showers dominate the eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure
gradient across the region supports light to gentle winds. Seas
are generally 1 to 3 ft, except 4 to 7 ft across the passages in
the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
far northwestern Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula will
weaken early tonight. Major Hurricane Kirk will remain well to
the NE of the Leeward Islands, but associated large long period
swells will continue to impact the Atlantic waters E of the
Leeward Islands into Sun morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin
into early next week. Looking ahead, strong southerly winds are
expected over the far northwestern Caribbean early next week due
to what is expected to be Hurricane Milton that will be tracking
across the south-central Gulf of Mexico at that time. Seas will
builds with these winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricanes Kirk
and Leslie, as well as on Tropical Storm Milton which may impact
the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida next week.

A ridge dominates the western Atlantic and the Bahamas W of 70W
and extends southward into Cuba. Between 40W and 70W, there are
a 1006 mb non-tropical low pressure located near 31N62W and
Major Hurricane Kirk. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8 to 11
ft are related to the non-tropical low center. High pressure,
with a 1018 mb center near the Madeira Islands, and another
center of 1020 mb near 29N35W, is in control of the weather
pattern across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters N of
20N. Large and hazardous swell generated by Kirk is spreading
across the waters north of 17N and E of 70W. Outside of the
tropical cyclones and the aforementioned low, gentle to moderate
NE to E winds prevail, except moderate to fresh NE winds near the
coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara. Seas are 5 to 7 ft away
from the Kirk and Leslie swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Kirk NE of the region
will continue to track N and well away from the offshore waters
through Sun. Very large swells generated by Kirk will mix with
swell present over the water ENE of the Bahamas producing rough
and hazardous seas over the waters E of 75W into early next week.
Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase off Florida and near
the Bahamas by mid-week associated with a front moving into the
region and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Milton currently over
the SW Gulf of Mexico. Milton is forecast to strengthen into a
hurricane Sun night, move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico
on Mon through Tue, approach the west coast of Florida on Wed
and track across central Florida to just E of central Florida
late Wed night and to E of northern Florida near 30N77W by Thu
afternoon. Farther E, swells associated with tropical cyclone
Leslie are forecast to remain E of the area. They may impact the
waters E of 60W by mid-week.

$$
GR