151
AXNT20 KNHC 271728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Mar 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends SW
to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03S40W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator
to 06N between 08W and 16W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04S to 03N between 30W and 48W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A pair of surface troughs are analyzed in the NW Gulf, one
extending from S of Lake Charles, LA to near Corpus Christi, TX
and the other extending from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to near
26N95W. These troughs are aiding the development of numerous
showers and thunderstorms N of 26N and W of 90W. The pressure
gradient between ridging over the E Gulf and the troughs over the
W Gulf maintains moderate to fresh SE winds and 4-7 ft seas W of
90W, with moderate E winds and slight seas across areas E of 90W.
Slightly higher seas of 4-6 ft are observed from the Florida
Straits into the far SE Gulf.

For the forecast, building high pressure will support an increase
of winds to moderate to fresh across the NW portion through
today. Winds over the NW Gulf will further increase to fresh to
strong tonight into Fri while expanding in coverage before
beginning to diminish early Sat. Seas generated by these winds
will build to around 10 ft. A weak cold front may move into the NW
Gulf late Sun night into early next week, with winds diminishing
to gentle to moderate ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E to NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are over much of
the Caribbean south of 16N, as well as in the lee of Cuba.
The remainder of the basin is seeing moderate to fresh trades and
seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale
force speeds at night and early morning through at least the
upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of
Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and over the waters between Cuba
tonight through Fri night. Similar winds will develop offshore
central Honduras and south of Hispaniola tonight through the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail elsewhere, except diminishing to light to gentle in
the lee of Cuba late in the weekend. Northerly swell may impact
the Atlantic Passages this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N63W to the SE Bahamas and the
northern coast of Haiti. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along and within 250 nm E of the trough, with
fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 4-6 ft occurring within
areas of convection. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of
3-5 ft are west of the trough. Another surface trough in the NE
subtropical Atlantic extends from 30N24W to 22N28W, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of
the trough.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by ridging stemming from a
1037 mb high centered near 37N36W. The enhanced pressure gradient
between this high and lower pressures in the tropics supports
fresh to strong E to NE winds and rough seas across much of the
tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 20W and 60W. Outside of
this large region, E to NE winds are moderate to locally fresh
with prevailing moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to
build in the W Atlantic, bringing an increase in winds across much
of the waters south of 29N by the end of the week and into the
weekend. Rough seas will build across these waters as a result.
Winds and seas will start to decrease later in the weekend as the
high shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may move off
the SE United States coast by early Tue.

$$
Adams