438
AXNT20 KNHC 241755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Aug 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fernand is centered near 31.0N 60.0W at 24/1500
UTC or 260 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are to 19 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is north of 29N between 59W and 62W.
Fernand is exiting the TAFB Discussion waters. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
the latest Fernand NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99): A tropical wave located just
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce shower and
thunderstorm activity. While satellite data indicates that the
wave does not appear to have a surface circulation, an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the
area. Surface winds are strong to near-gale force, with 8-11 ft
seas. This system could still become a tropical depression during
the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about 20
to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands later
today and early Monday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
and gusty winds to tropical storm force are likely across portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands today and Monday. The system
is expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional
development. There is a medium chance of formation within the next
48 hours and the next 7 days. Please read the latest TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands from 22N southward. The wave is moving slowly
westward around 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted at
this time.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 57W,
from 21N southward through AL99 to French Guiana, moving west at
around 20-25 kt. Refer to the Special Features section above.

Based on Upper Air Sounding Data from Kingston, Jamaica, the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean is reanalyzed along 79W,
from 20N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery
continues to indicate that the tropical wave envelope is large
and extends across most of the central and western Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Panama north to
17N and west of 79W. Additional scattered showers and tstorms are
noted elsewhere across Jamaica and the central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and extends southwestward to near 10N35W
then to AL99 near 13N57W. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section
above.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front persists across the northern Gulf Coast, and
continues to produce scattered moderate convection across the
northern Gulf waters north of 23N. Moderate to locally fresh WSW
winds are analyzed in the far E Gulf near the mouth of Tampa Bay.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail, with 1-3 ft
seas.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. A
stationary front will linger along the northern Gulf coast into
the early part of the week producing numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms mainly N of 25N. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each afternoon
through at least the middle of week as a trough develops over the
Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night. Moderate seas are
expected with these winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections
above.

Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the
Caribbean, with locally fresh trades near the aforementioned
tropical wave axis in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave located about 175 nm east of the Windward Islands
have increased since yesterday. However, the wave does not appear
to have a surface circulation. This system could still become a
tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves
quickly westward at about 15 to 20 kt, passing through the
Windward and Leeward Islands later today and early Monday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are likely across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands
today and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central
Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where conditions are forecast to become
less favorable for additional development. This wave will bring
increasing winds and building seas across the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles today, and over most of the east and central
Caribbean tonight through Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will
pulse across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Tue
night. NW to N swell will propagate across the tropical Atlantic
waters and move through the Atlantic Passages through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Tropical Storm Fernand and AL99. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES
section above.

Residual northerly swell from distant Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin
continue to affect parts of the western and central Atlantic. 8-11
ft seas, with a period of 15-17 seconds, is north of 25N between
30W and 65W. While significant wave heights elsewhere in open
waters have diminished to 4-7 ft, wave periods remain long at 13
seconds or greater. In the eastern Atlantic, swell periods are
near 20 seconds. Moderate or weaker trades prevail across the
basin.

For the forecast, Fernand will move to 32.6N 59.1W this
evening, 34.8N 57.8W Mon morning, 36.9N 56.4W Mon evening, 39.3N
54.3W Tue morning, 42.0N 51.0W Tue evening, and become
extratropical and move to 44.5N 46.0W Wed morning. Fernand will
dissipate early Thu. Meanwhile, large northerly swell generated
by distant extratropical cyclone Erin will continue to affect
the W Atlantic waters through the next couple of days. A
stationary front will linger off the SE U.S. coast into the
early part of the week with fresh winds SE of it. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola late Mon afternoon
through Tue night.

$$
Mahoney