102
AXNT20 KNHC 090543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri May 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and
extends southwestward to 06N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ.
The ITCZ then continues to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed S of 06N and E of 18W, S of 06N between 25W-47W, and
S of 09N and W of 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 0000 UTC, a frontal boundary remains inland over SE Texas. A
pair of surface troughs are located over the northern Gulf, with
another surface trough extending from the Bay of Campeche to the
west-central Gulf. Convergent surface winds around these features
supports scattered moderate convection N of 22N and W of 95W, with
scattered showers occurring across areas N of a line extending
from Tampico, Mexico to Fort Myers, FL. Fresh to strong E to NE
winds are observed in areas of stronger convection, per recent
scatterometer data. Another area of fresh to strong E to NE winds
is observed S of 23N between 87W and 93W, driven by a surface
trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh E winds
prevail across the remainder of the Gulf W of 87W and also through
the Florida Straits, with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere.
Seas of 2-5 ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary approaching the NW Gulf
waters produces scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the northern Gulf waters. The front will begin to move
across the western Gulf Fri, with a low developing along the front
near SE Louisiana. The low will meander over the NE Gulf through
Sun while the front will move eastward across the western half of
the basin. By Mon, the low is forecast to move northward and the
front will continue to move across the eastern Gulf. A band of
showers and thunderstorm could be associated with the front. Fresh
to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected
in the wake of the front through Sat night. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy
conditions in parts of the Gulf region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across
portions of the Caribbean S of a line running from 16N61W to
11N75W. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to NE winds are occurring
offshore NW Colombia, driven by the pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombia Low. Moderate to fresh
trades persist elsewhere across the central and W Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate trades in the E Caribbean. Slight seas also
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong east to
southeast winds are expected just N of Honduras at night through
Sat night. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas
are forecast over the remainder of the basin through Fri,
including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Expect increasing
winds and building moderate to rough seas, mainly over the south-
central Caribbean, including off Colombia this upcoming weekend as
the Atlantic high pressure builds westward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the discussion waters, extending from
31N23W to 27N29W to 28N35W. A trough, remnants of a dissipated
cold front, extends from 31N22W to 23N30W to 23N38W. Scattered
showers are observed near the trough. Fresh to strong NW winds are
observed behind the front, N of 27N between 24W-37W. Rough to
very rough seas also persist in this region.

An upper-level trough is interacting with a surface trough along
60W from 18N-25N to produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 15N-25N between 53W-60W. A more broad area of
scattered showers is occurring from 10N to 25N between 40W and
53W, fueled by divergence aloft. Another trough is along 68W
north of 23N with a weak 1014 mb low centered at 26N67W. A
moderate pressure gradient between these two troughs and a 1034 mb
Bermuda- Azores High at 41N47W is causing fresh to strong E to NE
winds north of 20N between 45W-60W and seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere,
winds across the tropical N Atlantic are moderate to fresh with
seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pres centered between Bermuda
and Hispaniola supports moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate to
rough seas over much of the waters E of 65W. These marine
conditions will start to diminish by Fri. The low pressure will
meander near 27N between 65W and 70W through Fri, and open up into
a trough by Sat morning. Then, the Atlantic high pressure will
build westward toward the Bahamas this upcoming weekend.

$$
Adams