604
AXNT20 KNHC 260503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Apr 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal at 14N17W and continues southwestward to 01N33W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N33W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 07N and east of 30W. Similar convection is noted
south of 04N and west of 42W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds south of 22N and east of 95W.
Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Mainly moderate easterly breezes
and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin, except for
light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NE Gulf. A stable
airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters this weekend into early next week supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to
fresh to strong speeds over the east and central Bay of Campeche
through Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh
speeds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida
through the period due to persistent high pressure NE of the area.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

The combination of a surface trough analyzed in the eastern
Caribbean and divergence aloft result in widespread cloudiness and
scattered showers over the area. A few showers are also noted in
Hispaniola and near the coast of eastern and western Cuba. Generally
dry conditions are found in the rest of the Caribbean. High pressure
north of the Caribbean support fresh to locally strong NE winds
off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Fresh NE
winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward Passage and
lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds
offshore Colombia through early Sat. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are expected in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba
through Tue night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough extends from 31N57W to the Mona Passage. A
few showers are evident east of the boundary. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh NE-E winds
west of a line from 31N55W to NE Hispaniola. Seas in these waters
are 5-8 ft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the
influence of a broad subtropical ridge near the Azores. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Africa
result in fresh to strong NE winds east of 25W and north of 15N.
Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high
pressure over the NW Atlantic and a drifting surface trough to
the N of Puerto Rico will continue to support fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through tonight.
A frontal boundary will clip the northern forecast waters between
55W and 65W on Sat, bringing fresh to strong E winds and seas to
around 8 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front may move southward,
between Florida and 65W, late Sunday into Monday followed by
moderate to fresh N to NE winds.

$$
Delgado