383
AXNT20 KNHC 100844
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warnings: A stationary front extends from 31N43W to
Hispaniola. A reinforcing front extends from 31N55W to central
Cuba. Gale-force winds in association with these front are
currently north of 27N between 43W and 66W. Rough to very rough
seas accompany the front as described in greater detail below. The
fronts will merge today, and quickly shift eastward, with gale-
force winds continuing through early Sat. The front and any
remaining associated gale-force winds will shift northeast and
east of the area Sat afternoon.

Another cold front will impact the SW N Atlantic waters,
approaching from the west tonight. Southerly winds offshore
northern Florida will increase to gale-force late tonight north
of 29N and ahead of the front. The front is forecast to reach from
near 31N70W to near the northern Bahamas Sat evening with gale-
force winds mainly east of the front north of 29N. By Sun
evening, the front will reach from near 31N47W to the Central
Bahamas with winds diminishing below gale- force. This system will
generate a new set of large NW swell, which will reinforce the
swell generated by the first front.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1006 mb low is centered near
29.5N94W, with associated cold front extending SW to near Tampico,
Mexico. Gale- force winds are east of the low center, where seas
are in the 8-13 ft range. The gale force winds will diminish
today, with frequent gusts to gale force continuing within 60 nm
of the coast through early tonight. The low will drag a cold
front across most of the Gulf through Sat. Fresh to strong winds
and rough seas will follow the front, reaching gale- force off
Tampico,Mexico and Veracruz, Mexico today. Winds will diminish
below gale-force by Sat.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large long-period northwest
swell with wave periods of 12 to 14 seconds continues to
propagate across the subtropical Atlantic waters. Seas greater
than 12 ft associated to this swell cover the waters N of 25N
between 30W and 75W. These conditions will propagate eastward
across the Atlantic waters, being reinforced by a set of new NW
swell as discussed above. Seas will peak in excess of 20 ft north
of 27N between 47W and 60W tonight. Seas of 12 ft or greater are
forecast to continue spreading southeastward through at least the
upcoming weekend.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough moves off the coast of Africa near 07N12W to
05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 00N33W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning for the western Gulf waters off Tampico, Mexico;
and the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico.

A 1006 mb low is centered near 29.5N94W, with cold front extending
SW to near Tampico, Mexico. Strong to gale force winds, and seas
of 10-14 ft are within 90 nm east of the front N of 27N. Strong
to near gale force winds are elsewhere east of the front to 90W.
Seas over these waters are in the 8-10 ft range N of 23N and W of
91W. Elsewhere E of the front to 90W, seas are in the 6-8 ft
range. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are west of
the front. E of 90W, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
prevail.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure will lift
northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley today, dragging
a cold front across the most of the Gulf through Sat. Strong to
near gale force winds E of the front will diminish through
tonight. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the
front, reaching gale force off Veracruz, Mexico today. These winds
and seas will diminish this weekend, as the front stalls over the
southeast Gulf. A reinforcing cold front will move into the Gulf
early next week, followed by strong winds and rough seas.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the eastern and western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the central Caribbean,
4-5 ft in the western Caribbean, and 2-3 ft over the eastern
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary will move into the far
northeast Caribbean and stall through Sat, then dissipate. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front across the western
Atlantic into Sat. Large, long-period northerly swell will also
accompany the front, impacting the Atlantic passages into the
northeast Caribbean Sat, the Atlantic waters east off the Leeward
Islands starting Sat night, and the waters east of the Windward
Islands by early Sun before subsiding into Mon. The pattern will
also support moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and
south- central Caribbean, with stronger winds pulsing off Colombia
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information
on the potential for several rounds of gale-force winds over the
northerly waters over the next several days, and on an associated
significant swell event impacting a large portion of the central
and western waters.

A stationary front extends from 31N43W to Hispaniola. A
reinforcing front extends from 31N55W to central Cuba. Aside from
the area of gale force winds, fresh to near gale force winds
prevail over the waters N of 22N between 35W and 72W. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Aside from the seas greater
than 12 ft, seas 8 ft or greater cover the majority of the
remainder of the discussion waters. The main exception is east of
the Windward Islands to 50W, where seas of 6-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a mostly stationary front extending
from 25N55W to northeast Hispaniola will move little today, ahead
of a reinforcing front from 31N55W to central Cuba. Winds to gale
force are both ahead and behind the reinforcing front N of 28N,
with rough to very rough seas. These winds and seas will move
southeast of Bermuda today. The fronts will merge late today and
shift east of the area by early Sat. Farther west, expect SW gales
and rough seas off northwest Florida late tonight into early Sat,
ahead of another cold front that will move off the coast Sat.
This front will shift across the forecast waters and exit east of
the area through Mon. As with the earlier front, gale force winds
and rough seas are possible over the northern waters in the
vicinity of the front through Sun. Winds and seas will diminish as
high pressure builds over the basin Sun into Mon.

$$
AL