112
AXNT20 KNHC 010907
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jul 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 11.7N 59.9W at 01/0900 UTC or
110 nm ESE of Grenada, moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105
kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are currently around 38 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in
the E semicircle and 120 nm in the W semicircle. A band of
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present between
120 nm and 330 nm in the NW quadrant. A continued quick westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands this morning and across the
southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late today through
Wednesday. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the
next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward
Islands into the eastern Caribbean.  Some weakening is expected in
the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are
expected across the Windward Islands today. Large swells
generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern
Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also
expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov

Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 20.1N 97.2W at 01/0900 UTC
or 60 nm SSE of Tuxpan Mexico, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently
around 13 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 14N to 23N between 90W and 100W. On the forecast
track, the center of Chris will continue farther inland over
eastern Mexico through today. Weakening is expected as Chris moves
farther inland, and the system will likely dissipate over the
higher terrain later today. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of
flooding across portions of eastern Mexico this morning, with
mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Three NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Showers and thunderstorms
continue in association with a 1010 mb area of low pressure
located about 1000 nautical miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 08N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
07N to 11N between 32W and 41W. An overnight scatterometer
satellite pass showed fresh to strong winds in association with
this system. Peak seas are currently near 8 ft. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle
part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 kt
across the central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in
the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
This system has a MEDIUM chance of tropical cyclone development
over the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance of development in the
next 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on Invest AL96.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W/38W, south of 13N,
moving westward at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure (Invest 96L) is
along the wave trough near 08N36W. Associated convection is
described in the Special Features section.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, south of 20N from
the Windward Passage to central Colombia, moving westward at
around 15 kt. A small area of scattered moderate convection is
noted from 15N to 16N between 71W and 73W with additional deep
convection present over portions of Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of near
the border of Mauritania and Senegal at 17N16W through 10N26W to
Invest 96L near 08N36W to 06N50W. No ITCZ axis is currently
present in the tropical Atlantic due to nearby Hurricane Beryl.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from
04N to 11N between 10W and 19W, and from 04N to 08.5N between 25W
and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N
between 42W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details
on Tropical Storm Chris located inland in Veracruz, Mexico.

Outside of Tropical Storm Chris located inland in Veracruz, weak
high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough
over the eastern United States is producing showers and isolated
thunderstorms along the northern and NE Gulf coast, affecting the
nearshore waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring
in the south of 27N and west of 90W. Seas in these waters are 4 to
7 ft away from the influence of Chris. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Chris is inland over Veracruz,
Mexico near 20.1N 97.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Chris will dissipate this
afternoon. Meanwhile gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
the NE half of the Gulf for the start of the week. Marine
conditions will improve in the SW half of the Gulf later today in
the wake of Chris, with ridging and gentle to moderate winds
prevailing across the basin through early Thu. Thereafter, distant
Hurricane Beryl currently approaching the eastern Caribbean is
forecast to be in the NW Caribbean Thu. Hurricane Beryl is near
11.8N 59.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Beryl is forecast to be near 17.4N
81.2W Thu morning, then to near 18.4N 87.6W over the Yucatan
Peninsula early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details
on Major Hurricane Beryl approaching the Windward Islands and
Invest 96L located in the central Atlantic.

High pressure ridging dominates the waters north of the basin.
Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft are in the central
Caribbean, highest just offshore northern Colombia. Moderate to
locally fresh trades and slight to moderate seas dominate the
remainder of the basin, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean
south of 10N. A weak surface trough over the NW Bahamas and
divergence aloft result in scattered showers affecting Cuba and
nearby waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 11.8N 59.9W at 5 AM EDT,
and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt
with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb.
Beryl will move to 12.6N 62.4W this afternoon, 13.9N 66.1W Tue
morning, 15.1N 70.0W Tue afternoon, 16.0N 73.9W Wed morning, 16.8N
77.7W Wed afternoon, and 17.4N 81.2W Thu morning. Beryl will
change little in intensity as it moves to 18.4N 87.6W early Fri.
Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the central
Caribbean through Tue morning in advance of Beryl. A surge of
fresh to strong winds may move into the tropical N Atlantic Tue
night through Wed, then into the eastern and central Caribbean
thereafter, associated with an area of low pressure which has the
potential for tropical cyclone formation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details
on Major Hurricane Beryl approaching the Windward Islands and
Invest 96L located in the central Atlantic.

An expansive and strong Bermuda-Azores high pressure system
dominates the tropical Atlantic. A couple of weak surface troughs
in the SW North Atlantic result in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms between the western Bahamas and Florida, as well as
NE of the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate trades dominate the
waters north of 20N and west of 25W. Moderate to fresh trades are
found south of 20N and west of 30W outside of the influence of
both Beryl and 96L. Typical fresh to strong NE winds are north of
19N between Africa and 25W where seas are mainly 6 to 9 ft,
highest northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to moderate
winds are southeast of the monsoon trough. Mainly 5 to 7 ft seas
prevail across the remainder of the waters, except 2 to 4 ft north
of 25N and west of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl is south of the area
near 11.8N 59.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Beryl is forecast to remain
south of the area in the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, ridging will
support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north
of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas
south of 25N, locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
at times, through the next several days. A decaying cold front may
drop south of 31N Tue through Wed, potentially stalling and
lingering near 29N/30N through the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky