977
AXNT20 KNHC 032308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Aug 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Caribbean with axis
along 71W from 21N southward into NW Venezuela, moving west at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted over water at this
time. However, strong afternoon convection is noted over NW
Colombia and NW Haiti.

A tropical wave is analyzed over the west Caribbean with axis
near 81W from 19N southward across Panama into the East Pacific
Ocean, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection prevails S of 14N between 78W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16.5W to 08N40W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N40W to 10N59W to 09.5N63W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 05.5N to 09N between
35W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1013 mb surface low is located over Alabama near 32.5N86.5W,
with stalled frontal boundary extending from the low to 28.5N90W
to 30N94W. To the S of the front, a surface trough is from 29N87W
to 25N91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails
near these features affecting much of the north central basin. A
few moderate thunderstorms are along the west coast of Florida
from Tampa Bay to Naples. A 1016 mb high is centered over the SW
Gulf near 24N94W. Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the
basin, with a few areas of moderate winds. Seas are generally 3 ft
or less.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will meander across the
northern Gulf region through Tue while dissipating. Elsewhere, a
weak ridge will prevail supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh E winds are likely at
night north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula, Tue night through
Thu night, as a trough develops there daily and drifts westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The Azores high extends a southwestward to near 70W, which supports
moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the central Caribbean,
moderate trades over the E basin and light to gentle winds over
the NW Caribbean. Seas are moderate basin-wide, except slight over
the NW basin. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic along
about 70W southwestward through the Windward Passage to near
Jamaica. Strong afternoon thunderstorms are seen on either side of
this trough from the far western Dominican Republic to eastern
Cuba and NW Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between NE Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombia low will continue to allow for fresh to
strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean,
mainly at night through Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh
trades are expected over the E Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds
over the NW Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh speeds Mon
night through Wed as a tropical wave moves across the area. Fresh
to locally strong E winds are also expected in the Gulf of
Honduras Tue through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stalled front is along about 31N, extending from coastal Georgia
to a 1009 mb gale center near 33.5N71W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring over the west Atlantic waters along and
south of the front to 28N and W of 68W. Gentle to moderate SW to
W winds prevail south of the gale center, N of 28N to 30N
between 68W and 75W, and become fresh along 31N. Seas are 5 to 7
ft across this area. To the southeast, the northern portion of a
Caribbean tropical wave has sheared off and left a surface trough
from 28N66W through the Windward Passage. Low level convergence to
the east of this feature is generating scattered moderate to
strong convection N of 22N and between the trough and 60W. To the
E, another surface trough is in the north- central Atlantic from
31N46W to 23N50W, where scattered showers are occurring just to
the west, N of 24N between 49W and 56W. The remainder of the basin
is under the influence of the Azores high that extends a ridge
southwestward to the trough along 70W. The pressure gradient to
the south is supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
of 6 ft or less.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to
extend a ridge from the NE Atlantic to the Bahamas through the
period, as frontal boundary meanders offshore of the SE U.S. The
associated pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. The northern
portion of a tropical wave, currently moving across Hispaniola,
will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands this evening, and the SE
Bahamas tonight. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are expected
in the wake of this system. An area of showers and thunderstorms,
supported by a moist and humid southerly flow will persist over
the east waters, particularly N of 20N between 60W and 70W,
through at least Mon. Winds and seas could be higher near
thunderstorms. Small NE swell will impact the NW zones through
early Wed.

$$
Stripling