923
AXNT20 KNHC 280416
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Aug 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0416 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 16N southward,
and moving west at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 39W and 45.5W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been relocated based on
wave diagnostic and observations to near 66.5W. It extends from
19N southward across Puerto Rico to central Venezuela. Isolated
moderate convection is depicted over Puerto Rico`s near coastal
waters.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84.5W from 19.5N
southward, across western Panama to the East Pacific Ocean, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous showers and scattered strong
thunderstorms are occurring over Nicaragua and Honduras, and
nearby Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends
southwestward to 08N38.5W. Aside from the convection related to a
tropical wave described above, numerous moderate convection is
noted from 06.5N to 12N and east of 24W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front is analyzed from 26N82W to 25N87W to 29N95W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails particularly east of 87.5W
to 100 NM south of the front. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted over the Bay of Campeche in association to two surface
troughs. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf,
except for locally fresh winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Seas across the basin range between 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will linger
over the northern Gulf through tonight before lifting NW of the
area by Thu. Then, high pressure will dominate the basin the
remainder of the week into the weekend. Under this weather
pattern, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the
basin, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the
S-central and SW Gulf nightly as a diurnal trough develops over
the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward at night. Slight to
locally moderate seas are forecast across the Gulf waters through
the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVE section above for information
regarding the two tropical waves moving across the basin.

An upper level trough is supporting numerous showers and
thunderstorms in between central Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.
A subtropical ridge near 28N continues to support a trade- wind
pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds and rough seas are present at the central basin. Light to
gentle winds and moderate seas persist near Costa Rica and Panama.
Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and moderate seas prevail for
the rest of the Caribbean Sea, including the Atlantic Passages.

For the forecast, a tropical wave with axis along 84W will
continue to generate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over much of the NW Caribbean through Thu night.
Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are in the
central Caribbean and these winds will become confined to the
S-central waters tonight into early next week. A second tropical
wave along 66W will continue move across the eastern Caribbean
tonight and Thu, reaching the central part of the basin by Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves southwestward from 31N72W to West Palm
Beach, Florida. Scattered showers are occurring along the front
and up to 90 nm south of the front. A pair of surface troughs are
supporting scattered moderate convection north of 22N between 60W
and 70W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1029
mb high centered near 39N33W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and moderate seas prevail north of 20N between 35W and the
Florida/Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere south of 20N and west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will lift N tonight, then will remain nearly stationary along 30N
and W of 75W through at least Fri. The Atlantic ridge will
dominate the remainder of the forecast area producing a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow. Another weak front may move into the
NW waters by the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
KRV