888
AXNT20 KNHC 030907
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 16.6N 74.4W at 03/0900 UTC or
160 nm ESE of Kingston Jamaica, moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are currently near 45
ft. Numerous strong convection is observed within 90 nm of the
center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring from 14.5N to 22N between 69W and 77W. On the forecast
track, the center of Beryl will move rapidly across the central
Caribbean Sea and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica later
today. The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman
Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico early Friday. Some weakening is forecast
during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at
or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica
later today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday.
Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through
today. Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected
to impact the Cayman Islands later today through midweek. Swell
will continue to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands during
the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands along 27W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 15N between
19W and 23W, and from 05N to 09N between 27W and 35W. Additional
shower activity is found across the Cabo Verde Islands and near
the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave (Invest 96L) is near 55.5W,
south of 18N to central Suriname, moving very rapidly westward at
25 to 30 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed from 10.5N to 15N between 53W and 62W. Associated winds
are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur as it moves westward at 20 to
30 kt across the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles today. The
chance of development is low in the next 48 hours and in the next
7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85.5W, south of 20N to
across portions of eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
in the SW Caribbean, affecting portions of eastern Central
America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N36W. The
ITCZ extends from

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
dangerous Hurricane Beryl, forecast to enter the Gulf Thu night
and Fri.

An expansive subtropical ridge centered west of the Azores extends
southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico. The weak pressure gradient
across the basin supports moderate or weaker winds, and slight seas.
Scattered moderate convection is in the Bay of Campeche south of
20N between 94W and 96W, while generally dry conditions are
prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will linger
through Thursday in advance of Beryl, now in the central
Caribbean. Major Hurricane Beryl is near 16.6N 74.4W at 5 AM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
946 mb. Beryl will move to 17.3N 76.9W this afternoon, 18.1N 80.4W
Thu morning, 18.7N 83.8W Thu afternoon, 19.4N 86.9W Fri morning,
move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and weaken to a tropical
storm near 20.1N 89.5W Fri afternoon, and 21.1N 91.9W Sat morning.
Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf near 23.0N
95.5W early Sun. There remains uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. Interests in the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Beryl.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
dangerous Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea.

Aside from Hurricane Beryl, the strong subtropical ridge centered
over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to locally near gale-
force easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage, and in the lee of eastern Cuba. Seas
are 8 ft or higher between 65W and 78W, with peak seas to 45 ft
with Beryl as described above. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere from
11N to 18N between the Lesser Antilles and 80W. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are in the western Caribbean, light and
variable south of 11N in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 2 to 4 ft
north of 18N and west of 80W, and 4 to 7 ft across the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 16.6N 74.4W at
5 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 946 mb. Beryl will move to 17.3N 76.9W this
afternoon, 18.1N 80.4W Thu morning, 18.7N 83.8W Thu afternoon,
19.4N 86.9W Fri morning, move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula
and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.1N 89.5W Fri afternoon. A
surge of fresh to strong winds, building seas, and squalls is
expected to move across the tropical N Atlantic today, then across
the eastern and central Caribbean later today through early Fri,
associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds will then prevail across much of the central and western
Caribbean this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
Invest 96L located east of the Lesser Antilles, and on dangerous
Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean Sea.

A stationary front is along 31N between 72W and southeastern
Georgia, continuing to the northeast as a cold front just west of
Bermuda. Scattered thunderstorms are north of 30N between 63W and
66W. Otherwise, a expansive subtropical ridge centered west of
the Azores dominates the basin. The outermost squalls from
dangerous Hurricane Beryl are affecting the waters north of
Hispaniola to 22N, including the Turks and Caicos. A generally
dry airmass maintains fairly tranquil conditions over the
remainder of the basin, outside of the deep tropics. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are north of 22N between Africa and 20W. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5 to 8 ft away from Invest
96L between Africa and 45W, with similar heights south of 25N and
west of 45W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft over the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 16.6N
74.4W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 17 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 946 mb. Beryl will move to 17.3N 76.9W this
afternoon, 18.1N 80.4W Thu morning, 18.7N 83.8W Thu afternoon,
19.4N 86.9W Fri morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 20.1N 89.5W Fri afternoon, and 21.1N 91.9W Sat morning.
Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf near 23.0N
95.5W early Sun. Otherwise, central Atlantic high pressure will
extend a ridge southwestward to N Florida to support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N.
Winds and seas will be locally strong north of Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through the next several
days as Beryl moves through the Caribbean. A decaying cold front
will sink south of 31N through early Thu, then stall and linger
near 30N through the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky