293
AXNT20 KNHC 191018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Sep 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with near 34W, from 05N
to 20N, moving westward at 5 kt. No deep or significant convection
is noted in the wave environment.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 83W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is E of the wave axis from 13N to 18N between 79W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues west-southwestward to 10N30W and
then to 14N42W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 04N
to 13N between 09W and 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the basin along with
slight seas, except for locally moderate SE winds over the E Bay
of Campeche. Otherwise, a surface trough across Florida is
supporting scattered showers along the Florida coastal waters S of
Cedar Key.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging over the Gulf waters will
support gentle to locally moderate easterly winds and slight seas
through the upcoming weekend. Moderate winds may pulse in the
eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several days. A
cold front is forecast to clip the far NE waters today into Fri
with little change in winds and seas. Looking ahead, a broad area
of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week
over the western and NW Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the N or NW over the NW
Caribbean Sea and into the SE Gulf of Mexico through the middle
part of next week. Regardless of development, winds and seas will
start increasing across the SE Gulf by late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure located north of Hispaniola forces moderate to
fresh easterly winds in the central Caribbean and moderate trades
in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5-6 ft in the central basin and
2-4 ft elsewhere. Otherwise, a tropical wave moving across Central
America and portions of the NW Caribbean is generating scattered
showers and tstms over the offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and portions of Panama.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean
Sea will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across
the E and central Caribbean, and light to gentle winds and slight
to moderate seas across the NW and SW portions of the basin
through at least Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure
could form late this weekend or early next week over the western
and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of
this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as
the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico through the middle part of next week. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
to the NW of the remnants of Gordon near 25N54W is producing fresh
to strong winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters N of
25N and E of 60W. West of 60W and to the NE of the central
Bahamas, a 1015 mb high is supporting light to gentle variable
winds and slight to moderate seas while a mid to upper level
trough supports scattered showers over the central and northern
Bahamas as well as the Great Bahama Bank. Over the central
subtropical waters, a pair of lows, one the remnants of Gordon,
supports scattered heavy showers and tstms between 35W and 60W.
Aside from the convection, these areas of low pressure also linked
to a stationary front are supporting fresh to strong winds and
rough seas. Over the subtropical waters E of 35W, winds are light
to gentle and seas slight to moderate.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure located to the NW of
the remnants of Gordon has potential for some additional
development as it meanders over the open waters of the central or
western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week. Regardless of
development, the low will continue to affect the NE offshore
waters with fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of
60W through Fri. Expect pulsing moderate to fresh trades off the
coast of Hispaniola through Fri. Otherwise, a weak cold front will
move off the SE CONUS tonight and slowly move across the waters N
of 25N through Mon. A reinforcing front will enter the NW
offshores waters Mon followed by fresh winds and rough seas.

$$
Ramos