927
AXNT20 KNHC 151020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a strong
ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures associated
with the Colombian low will continue to support strong to gale-
force NE winds over the south-central Caribbean through early this
morning. The strongest winds are noted offshore NW Colombia. Seas
to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong
easterly winds will remain in the south-central Caribbean from
this afternoon through the rest of the week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 02N23W.
The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to near 02S44W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 03N and between 23W and 39W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the basin, supporting moderate
to fresh easterly winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche and Florida
Straits, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to locally moderate seas are prevalent. A
generally dry airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions
across the Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the basin
through midweek. By Wed, winds will increase to moderate to fresh
speeds as a cold front moves across the eastern half of the basin.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front once again,
supporting E to SE fresh winds Thu night across the central and
western Gulf. Winds will likely pulse to strong speeds off the
Yucatan Peninsula and over the western Gulf beginning on Fri and
continuing through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
off the coast of Colombia.

A surface trough is analyzed along the coast of Nicaragua and
extending northward to 19N. Tropical moisture and wind
convergence result in scattered showers along the trough axis.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough extending from eastern Hispaniola
to the central Caribbean allow for a few showers to affect the
regional waters and nearby landmasses.

Outside of the south-central Caribbean, high pressure to the north
sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds in the north-central Caribbean,
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in
the eastern Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, gale force NE to E winds off the coast of
Colombia will prevail through early this morning, then strong to
near gale will continue through midweek. Within the area of these
winds, seas will build to 12 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE to
E winds will prevail in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and
in the lee of Hispaniola through Tue as a high pressure center
shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the area. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds in the south- central Caribbean will continue
through the forecast period. Rough seas will prevail with the
strongest winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the SW North Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures
over the SE United States support fresh to strong SW winds north
of 29N and west of 75W. Moderate seas are noted in these waters.
A strong non-tropical low situated in the North Atlantic is
sending swell to the tropical Atlantic, with seas greater than 8
ft north of 28N between 56W and 66W. This area is behind its
frontal boundary, that enters our area as a cold front from 31N51W
to 25N56W, then becomes stationary from that point to 18N68W.
Fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted between the SE
Bahamas, Hispaniola and NE Cuba. The strongest winds and highest
seas are present at the entrance of the Windward Passage. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an
extensive subtropical ridge located south of the Azores. This
ridge supports fresh to strong N-NE winds and moderate seas off
southern Western Sahara and Mauritania. Moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
continue moving E while weakening through midweek, dissipating by
Wed night. The next cold front may enter the NW waters Tue night
with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas on either side of
the front. This front will continue to move SE across the region
throughout the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast winds
will prevail south of 27N and west of 65W, including near and in
the Windward Passage Fri along with rough seas north of the
Bahamas.

$$
ERA