138
AXNT20 KNHC 300600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Sep 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE...

The center of Tropical Depression Joyce, at 30/0300 UTC, is close
to 22.3N 47.5W. Joyce is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees 05
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 60 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 30 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 13 feet.
Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force
winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 21N to 24N between 46W and
51W. Fresh winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 17N
to 27N between 38W and 50W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, and the
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST, that are issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the websites
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php, for more
  information. Please, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the Public Advisory, about JOYCE.

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...

The center of Tropical Depression Twelve, at 30/0300 UTC, is close
to 13.9N 33.2W. TWELVE is moving toward the west, or 280 degrees
06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Expect for the next 12 hours or so: winds 20 knots or less, and
rough seas in E swell, from 15N to 18N between 35W and 37W.
Fresh winds are in the remainder of the area from 05N to 27N
between 26W and 38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 06N to 18N between 23W and 42W. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast, and the Offshore Waters
Forecast, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more
information. Visit the website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more
details, for the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 260 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, and between Africa and the tropical wave. Upper
level winds are forecast to become more conducive, for the gradual
development of this system, during the next few days. It is
possible that a tropical depression may form during the middle or
the latter part of this week. The system is forecast to move
slowly toward the W or WNW in the eastern sections of the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Please, refer to the website, www.nhc.gov/cyclones/, for details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The GFS model for
250 mb is showing that anticyclonic wind flow is between 55W and
64W; cyclonic wind flow is between 64W and the Windward Passage;
anticyclonic wind flow is in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 09.5N in NW
Venezuela to 13N between 70W and 74W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea from
the Mona Passage westward. The monsoon trough is passing through
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is in the coastal plains of southern
Mexico between 92W and 96W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 26N southward. This is for the Western Caribbean
Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: the environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for the gradual development of the tropical wave. It
is possible that a tropical depression may form around the middle
part of this week. The weather system is forecast to move slowly
toward the WNW, and then toward the NW, and into the Gulf of
Mexico, during the latter part of this week. Anyone who has
interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and along the U.S.A.
Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Please,
refer to the website, www.nhc.gov/cyclones/, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 12N24W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the remainder of the areas that are from 20N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section, for details about
the 81W/82W Caribbean Sea tropical wave, and the possible
development into a tropical cyclone with respect to this weather
feature.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1016 mb 29N72W high
pressure center, to 28N82W in Florida, to 28N91W.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the Gulf of
Mexico. An exception is for fresh northerly winds from 21N
southward from 93W westward.

Moderate to fresh winds will pulse near Veracruz nightly through
Mon, potentially increasing to strong by Tue night through
midweek. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas will
prevail across the basin into midweek. Looking ahead, expect
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas Wed into Thu over the
western Gulf due to low pressure forming across the Bay of
Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section, for details about
the 81W/82W Caribbean Sea tropical wave, and the possible
development into a tropical cyclone with respect to this weather
feature. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, through
Nicaragua, and into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Moderate or slower winds, and mostly slight to some moderate seas,
are in the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 30/0000 UTC, are: 0.30 in Curacao, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe.
This information is from the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A broad area of low pressure is along a tropical wave located
over the western Caribbean Sea with axis near 81W. This system is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This
system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of this week. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across
the basin through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Joyce, and for the 19W/20W tropical wave.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 29N72W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from Tropical
Storm Joyce westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 28N northward from 77W westward. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 40W
eastward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 32N28W. A 1023
mb high pressure center is near 36N16W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 30/0000 UTC, are: 0.15 in Bermuda. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward from 25W eastward.
Broad fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 05N southward between 34W
and the coast of South America. Moderate or slower winds are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are elsewhere
from 67W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean from 67W westward.

Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
through mid week. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will impact the
waters south of Bermuda to 29N late Thu into Fri. The main
impacts associated with T.D. Twelve will remain east of 55W, but 8
to 10 ft NE swell will reach as far west as 60W Fri.

$$
mt/gr