078
AXNT20 KNHC 062352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 07 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning/Swell Event: A rather fast moving
cold front extends from near 31N29W to 25N40W and to 26N60W,
then curves northwestward as a weakening stationary front to
near 30N66W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicated
southwest winds to 35 kt within 90 nm ahead of the first front.
Gale-force northwest winds of 30 to 35 kt behind the front. In
addition to the gale force winds, buoy observations and
altimeter satellite data passes indicate high seas of 20 to 25
ft in NW swell that follow the front. The front will continue
southward to east of 65W through early this week, before
eventually stalling and dissipating along 20N by late Tue.
Associated gale-force winds are expected to diminish below gale-
force this evening, however, the high seas will be slow in
subsiding through late Mon. Seas of 12 ft generated by the swell
are forecast to reach as far south as 18N through Mon night,
with highest seas of around 23 ft near 30N. Seas will subside
below 12 ft by late Wed.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front
extends from southeastern Louisiana to the central Bay of
Campeche early this evening. A scatterometer satellite data pass
from this afternoon vividly displayed near gale to gale-force
northwest to north winds west of the front south of 28N.
Both altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations
indicate seas of 8 to 12 ft with these winds, with higher seas
of 9 to 14 ft over the SW Gulf. Gale-force winds will prevail
off of Veracruz through midday Mon before diminishing.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Africa near 10N15W and continues southwestward to 01N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to near the coast of
Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
within 180 nm on either side of both boundaries and west of 10W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of America.
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details.

A strong late-season cold front extends from southeastern Louisiana
to the central Bay of Campeche early this evening. Outside of
the gale conditions: latest altimeter satellite data passes show
rough seas west of the front, and both latest scatterometer
satellite data passes and buoy observations show strong northwest
to north winds west of the front. Fresh southeast to south winds
along with seas of 6 to 9 ft in SE swell are over the central
Gulf ahead of the front, and moderate to fresh southeast winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern Gulf. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted over eastern Louisiana and
adjacent waters and over the western Florida panhandle. The moist
southerly flow ahead of the front is sustaining some patches of
sea fog east of the front to near 90W and from 23N to 26N.

For the forecast, the cold front will move slowly eastward,
reaching from the western Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of
Campeche Mon morning, from near Marco Island, Florida to the NE
Yucatan Peninsula Tue morning, then exit to the southeast of the
basin by Tue evening. Strong northerly winds and rough seas will
follow the front across most of the Gulf through Mon evening,
before winds and seas diminish from west to east through Tue
night. Behind the front, high pressure will settle across the
northern Gulf Tue night through Thu to produce gentle breezes
and slight seas in all but the southeast Gulf, where moderate NW
swell will persist into early Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong trades are over the south-central Caribbean and over the
Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are
elsewhere across the basin, except for the eastern section,
south of Cuba, and south of 10N off Panama and Costa Rica. These
winds are due to a tight gradient between high pressure that is
west-southwest of Bermuda, and lower pressure in northern
Colombia. Seas are in the range of 8 to 10 ft over the central
part of the basin and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere, except 6 to 9 ft in
the Gulf of Honduras. Aside from a few showers near Costa Rica,
and from southern Panama to northwest Colombia, no significant
convection is observed.

For the forecast, strong trades continuing across the south-
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will begin to diminish by
Mon morning as high pressure north of the area begins to shift
eastward. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across all but
northwest portions of the basin through Thu as high pressure
moves into the central Atlantic. A cold front is expected to
reach the northwestern Caribbean Tue, and move slowly eastward,
reaching from central Cuba to NE Honduras Thu before stalling and
dissipating. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will fill
in behind the front through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far northeast Atlantic
waters. Please refer to the Special Features section for more
details.

In addition to the gale-force winds associated to the cold front
described in the Special Features section, fresh to strong winds
and rough seas are noted near the front covering the area north
of 24N between 20W and 59W. Farther west, a 1023 mb high center
is analyzed west-southwest of Bermuda near 30N75W. This pattern
set-up supporting fresh to strong east winds near the approaches
of the Windward Passage and north of Haiti and mostly fresh east
to southeast winds through he Old Bahama Channel between Cuba
and the Bahamas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds are evident over the tropical Atlantic along with 6 to 8 ft
seas. Farther east, fresh north winds and rough seas are noted
off Senegal. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere along
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh north to northeast winds and
large N swell are north of the western part of the Special
Features cold front, which is analyzed as a weakening stationary
front from 26N60W to 30N66W. The gradient between the 1023 mb
high center and relatively lower pressure to its west is
sustaining fresh south winds are off northeast Florida. These
winds will increase to strong speeds Mon and Mon night and
shift to south to southwest in response to the approaching
Gulf of America cold front. The high pressure will shift
eastward through Wed, allowing for the approaching cold front to
move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night into Tue. The
front will generally stall from Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed,
followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough
seas.

$$
Aguirre