506
AXNT20 KNHC 192329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86W south
of 20N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms with frequent lightning are within 180 nm east
of the wave over eastern Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes along the coast of Senegal, Africa near
13N17W, and continues west-southwestward to 13N24W and to near
13N37W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the trough
within 60 nm of line from 08N19W to 07N26W and to 06N36W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A rather weak pressure pattern remains in place over the area as
two weak 1014 mb highs are analyzed, one just inland
southwestern Louisiana and the other just inland Mexico near
Tampico. The associated gradient is providing for generally light
to gentle winds throughout, except for gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds over the central and eastern Bay of
Campeche. Seas are in the range of 2 to 3 ft throughout.

A trough extends from central Florida southwestward to near Fort
Myers, and out over the southeastern Gulf near 24N85W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are near the western part of the trough
while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of
27N east of 93W.

For the forecast, the current weak pattern will support gentle
to locally moderate easterly winds and slight seas through the
upcoming weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds may pulse in
the eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several
days. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form
early next week over the western and NW Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north
or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.
Regardless of development, winds and seas will start increasing
over the across the SE Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough is analyzed from the central Atlantic southwestward to
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and to near 13N65W. Scattered to
broken low clouds with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm north of the trough.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the western part of
the sea from 12N to 17N between 81W and 83W. Similar activity is
increasing over most of the Greater Antilles and over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are over the far northwest part of the sea. Partial ASCAT
satellite data passes reveal mostly moderate trades over
the central part of the sea, except for trades of fresh speeds
south of 15N between 68W and 72W, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere across
the basin, except for light and variable winds north of 18N
between 74W and 80W, including the near the Windward Passage.
Seas are in the range of 3 to 6 ft, except for lower seas of
2 to 4 ft between 64W and 68W and north of 18N west of 74W.

The eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends
eastward along 10N to near 74W. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are south of 12N west of 74W to across southern
Costa Rica and northern Panama.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected across the eastern and central Caribbean, with light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas across the northwest
and southwest portions of the basin through at least Sat.
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form early
next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and
a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of
next week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation in the next seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 mb low is north of the area near 32N76W. A trough extends
from the low southwestward to inland South Florida near Stuart.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are east and
southeast of the trough to near 72W. Another trough extends from
near 30N61W southeastward to low pressure of 1008 mb near 25N55W.
Increasing moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm
northeast of the low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
north of 26N between 57W and 62W. Fresh to strong winds are
within 300 nm of the low in the N semicircle along with seas of
8 to 10 ft. Some development of this system is possible while it
meanders over the open waters of the central or western
Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.

A stationary front extends from the low near 25N55W eastward to
another low, remnants of Gordon, near 26N45W with a pressure of
1010 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 23N
to 26N. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from
26N to 30N between 38W and 45W. Some development of this system
is possible while it moves northward or north-northeastward over
the next few days. A trough extends from the low southward to
near 27N47W and southwestward to 15N54W and to the eastern
Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and
within 60 nm east-southeast of the trough between 46W and 51W.
Scattered showers and isolated showers thunderstorms are near the
trough west of 51W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are
elsewhere near the trough. The stationary front continues from
the 1010 mb remnant low northeastward to a 1013 mb low near
30N36W. A trough extends from this low east-southeastward to
near 29N28.5W. Isolated showers are near the trough. Patches of
light to moderate rain moving eastward are within 120 nm
southwest of the low.

A 1014 mb high is near 25N60W. Overall, rather weak high
pressure is present over the basin outside the above mentioned
features. The gradient in place is allowing for moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds to exist elsewhere north of 26N
and east of 65W, and moderate north to northeast winds to be
south of 26N between 55W and 65W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in
northeast swell elsewhere north of 25N between 55W and 65W, and 4
to 6 ft in northeast to east swell south of 25N between 55W and
65W. Mostly light to gentle winds are west of 65W with seas of 2
to 4 ft in E swell.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of a line from
09N14W to 06N31W to 09N45W and to 10N60W. Moderate or weaker
winds are over in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate
seas are over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas
associated with the 1008 mb low pressure that is near 25N55W will
impact the waters north of 25N and east 60W through Fri. Expect
pulsing moderate to fresh trades off the coast of Hispaniola
through Fri. Otherwise, a weak cold front will move off the
southeastern United States tonight, and slowly move across the
waters north of 25N through Mon. A reinforcing front is forecast
to move across the northwest part of the forecast waters Mon,
followed by fresh winds and rough seas.

$$
Aguirre