947
AXNT20 KNHC 100913
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Milton is centered near 28.5N 80.5W at 10/0900 UTC or
10 nm NE of Cape Canaveral Florida, moving NE at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently
estimated to be around 33 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted within 480 nm in the NE and E quadrants of
Milton in the Atlantic waters.  Milton is moving toward the
northeast and this general motion is expected to continue today,
followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Milton will move away from Florida and to the north
of the Bahamas today. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton
is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low tonight. Heavy
rainfall across the central to northern Florida Peninsula through
this morning continues to bring the risk of considerable flash and
urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding,
especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall flood threat. Swells generated by Milton are
expected to continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. and
the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells could
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Leslie is centered near 22.9N 49.8W at 10/0900 UTC or
1480 nm WSW of the Azores, moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are currently estimated to be
around 30 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 150 nm of the center of Leslie. A turn to the north
and north-northeast with an increase in forward motion is
forecast on Friday, followed by a turn to the northeast and east-
northeast over the weekend. Leslie is forecast to weaken during
the next few days.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning (AL93): A 1003 mb low pressure
system located near 30.N64.5W is producing strong to gale-force
westerly winds with 10 to 16ft seas from 28N to 31N between 61W
and 66W. This low and associated gales will shift northeastward
into the north-central Atlantic this evening.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information.
For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both
Milton and Leslie, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 15N southward,
and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 06N to 09N between 37W and 48W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 62.5W from the
Windward Islands southward into northeastern Venezuela. It is
moving westward at around 10 10 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Grenada, Trinidad and
Tobago.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic along the coast of Africa
near Dakar, Senegal at 14.5N17W to 09N31W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 09N31W to 07N39W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave near 07N39W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted near the coast of Africa from 05N to 16N
between the coast of Africa and 20W, likely associated with the
next tropical wave. Similar convection is noted from 06N to 08.5N
between 21W and 26W, and from 08N to 12N between 27W and 35W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near northern Colombia and northern Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Hurricane Milton near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Tropical storm
force winds are still in the Gulf coastal waters of Florida.
Outside the direct influence of Hurricane Milton, fresh to near-
gale NW to N winds are present east of 90W, with gentle to
moderate winds west of 90W. Very large and dangerous remnant
swells cover the majority of the basin, with seas of 12 ft or
greater east of 91.5W, and 7 to 11 ft west of 91.5W.

For the forecast, Milton will move into the Atlantic to 29.3N
78.0W this afternoon, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near
29.6N 74.2W Fri morning, 29.6N 70.3W Fri afternoon, 29.7N 67.0W
Sat morning, 29.9N 63.5W Sat afternoon, and weaken as an
extratropical cyclone near 30.6N 60.1W Sun morning. Milton will
dissipate early Mon. Conditions should improve across the basin
Fri night into Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Milton is located north of the area over east-Central
Florida with a trailing trough moving into the NW Caribbean.

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sun. Moderate to fresh
winds are in the NW Caribbean around the far outer influence of
Milton, while remnant NW to N swells of 8 to 12 ft continue to
spread through the Yucatan Channel all the way to the coast of
eastern Honduras with higher values in the channel. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are in the Caribbean east of 70W, along with
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less
prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will funnel
from the Yucatan Channel southward to offshore eastern Honduras
and Nicaragua as Milton drags the trough across the western
Caribbean while continuing away from the area. Meanwhile, large
swells of 8 to 12 ft from the Yucatan Channel continue to impact
the waters north of 16N and west of 82W, higher in the channel.
These seas will very slowly subside through the end of the week.
Moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean will spread to
the central Caribbean Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about Hurricanes Milton
and Leslie, and a Gale force low center near 30.5N64.5W. Also
refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Atlantic basin.

Other than those features mentioned in the Special Features
section, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
remainder of the open waters, except moderate to fresh from 13N to
23N between the coast of Africa and 23W. Seas are 5 to 9 ft away
from the special features in mixed swells, except 7 to 10 ft in
the moderate to fresh winds near Africa.

For the forecast W of 55W, Milton will move into the Atlantic to
29.3N 78.0W this afternoon, weaken as an extratropical cyclone
near 29.6N 74.2W Fri morning, 29.6N 70.3W Fri afternoon, 29.7N
67.0W Sat morning, 29.9N 63.5W Sat afternoon, and weaken as an
extratropical cyclone near 30.6N 60.1W Sun morning. Milton will
dissipate early Mon. Meanwhile, 1003 mb low pressure near
30.5N64.5W is producing gale force winds SE of the low center. The
low will shift NE of the area this evening while gales diminish
across the area. Farther E, swells associated with Hurricane
Leslie, forecast to remain E of the area, will impact the waters E
of 60W through tonight, mixing with swells generated by the gale
low. Conditions should improve across the entire basin by early
next week.

$$
Lewitsky