


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
391 AXNT20 KNHC 150618 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 19.6N 45.6W at 15/0300 UTC or 1250 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving NNW at 10 kt with an estimated minimum central pressure at 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 14 ft (3.5 m) near the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near and up to 100 nm in the eastern quadrant from the center, and farther northeast from 21N to 24N between 41W and 44W. Lorenzo is expected to turn toward the north overnight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wed and Thu. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lorenzo is forecast to dissipate within a couple days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from the western Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 04N to 13N between 21W and 30W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 14N southward, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 10N between 30W and 38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 17N southward, and moving WNW at 5 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 12N to 14N between 54W and 57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near the Saloum National Park, then extends southwestward to 09N27W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N27W to 08N34W, then resumes from 08N37W to 09N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up south of the trough from 09N to 12N between the Guinea-Bissaru/Guinea coast and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 85 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 39W and 42W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered to numerous heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Two modest surface troughs are causing widely scattered showers north of the western tip of Cuba, and at the western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high near New Orleans is dominating the Gulf with light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high and its related surface ridge will dominate the Gulf through the weekend, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as high pressure over the southeastern United States shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the northwestern Gulf waters on Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is coupling an upper-level trough to generate scattered heavy and strong thunderstorms near the ABC Islands. Two other surface troughs are causing widely scattered moderate convection near Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the eastern and central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the northwestern basin through Thu before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead of the frontal boundary through Wed night. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through Sat. Easterly winds in the eastern basin will become mainly fresh by Sat evening as a vigorous tropical wave approaches the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean late Sun and fresh trades will extend to the central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic. A cold front curves southwestward from north of Bermuda across 31N66W to south of Lake Okeechobee, FL. Patchy showers are seen near and up to 50 nm south of this front. A dissipating cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N62W to 26N73W, then continues as a dissipating stationary front across the central Caribbean to near western Cuba. Widely scattered moderate convection is visible near and up to 110 nm south of this feature. At the central Atlantic, a surface trough reaches southwestward from a 1004 mb low at 31N43W to a 1006 mb low at 20N49W to 23N59W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up east of the second low, north of 27N between 43W and 48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed southwest of this low from 24N to 27N between 48W and 51W. For the eastern Atlantic, convergent southeasterly winds are causing widely scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 31W and 40W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale S to SW winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are evident near the two low pressure systems, north of 25N between 38W and 51W. Fresh to near-gale SE to S winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are noted just east of the center of Lorenzo from 17N to 23N between 41W and 44W. To the west, moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist north of 25N between 60W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. A modest 1012 mb high is supporting mainly gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in mixed moderate swells, from 10N to 25N between 55W/60W and the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds with seas at 2 to 5 ft are found in the Great Bahama Bank. Outside the direct impacts from TS Lorenzo, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted from 10N to 25N. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast, the cold front will move farther southeast through Thu before dissipating. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed morning, and from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front across the waters north of 27N later tonight. These marine conditions will shift eastward with the front through late in the week. A reinforcing front will follow the main front, and is forecast to extend from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida by Fri morning. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo will move to 21.3N 44.9W Wed morning, 24.0N 42.6W Wed evening, 26.9N 38.9W Thu morning before dissipating Thu evening. $$ Chan