Tropical Weather Discussion
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391
AXNT20 KNHC 150618
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 19.6N 45.6W at 15/0300
UTC or 1250 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving NNW at
10 kt with an estimated minimum central pressure at 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas
are estimated to be around 14 ft (3.5 m) near the center.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near and
up to 100 nm in the eastern quadrant from the center, and farther
northeast from 21N to 24N between 41W and 44W. Lorenzo is
expected to turn toward the north overnight, followed by a
northeastward motion on Wed and Thu. Gradual weakening is
forecast, and Lorenzo is forecast to dissipate within a couple
days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from the western
Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 04N
to 13N between 21W and 30W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 14N southward,
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 02N to 10N between 30W and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 17N southward,
and moving WNW at 5 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
seen from 12N to 14N between 54W and 57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
the Saloum National Park, then extends southwestward to 09N27W.
An ITCZ continues westward from 09N27W to 08N34W, then resumes
from 08N37W to 09N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is flaring up south of the trough from 09N to 12N
between the Guinea-Bissaru/Guinea coast and 18W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident up to 85 nm along either side of
the ITCZ between 39W and 42W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered to numerous heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near eastern Panama and
northwestern Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two modest surface troughs are causing widely scattered showers
north of the western tip of Cuba, and at the western Bay of
Campeche. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high near New Orleans is dominating
the Gulf with light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the
north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high and its related surface ridge will
dominate the Gulf through the weekend, resulting in gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds are forecast to
increase to fresh over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night
through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens some across
the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the
week as high pressure over the southeastern United States shifts
eastward into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to reach the northwestern Gulf waters on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is coupling an upper-level trough to generate
scattered heavy and strong thunderstorms near the ABC Islands.
Two other surface troughs are causing widely scattered moderate
convection near Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and in the Gulf of
Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the eastern and central
basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea

For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the
northwestern basin through Thu before dissipating. Moderate to
locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of
the front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and
ahead of the frontal boundary through Wed night. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through Sat.
Easterly winds in the eastern basin will become mainly fresh by
Sat evening as a vigorous tropical wave approaches the Lesser
Antilles. The tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern
Caribbean late Sun and fresh trades will extend to the central
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.

A cold front curves southwestward from north of Bermuda across
31N66W to south of Lake Okeechobee, FL. Patchy showers are seen
near and up to 50 nm south of this front. A dissipating cold front
curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N62W to
26N73W, then continues as a dissipating stationary front across
the central Caribbean to near western Cuba. Widely scattered
moderate convection is visible near and up to 110 nm south of this
feature. At the central Atlantic, a surface trough reaches
southwestward from a 1004 mb low at 31N43W to a 1006 mb low at
20N49W to 23N59W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
is flaring up east of the second low, north of 27N between 43W and
48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed southwest of this
low from 24N to 27N between 48W and 51W. For the eastern Atlantic,
convergent southeasterly winds are causing widely scattered
moderate convection north of 28N between 31W and 40W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic.

Fresh to strong with locally near-gale S to SW winds and seas of 7
to 11 ft are evident near the two low pressure systems, north of
25N between 38W and 51W. Fresh to near-gale SE to S winds with 8
to 10 ft seas are noted just east of the center of Lorenzo from
17N to 23N between 41W and 44W. To the west, moderate to fresh NW
to N winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist north of 25N between 60W
and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. A modest 1012 mb high is
supporting mainly gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in mixed
moderate swells, from 10N to 25N between 55W/60W and the Bahamas.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds with seas at 2 to 5 ft are
found in the Great Bahama Bank. Outside the direct impacts from
TS Lorenzo, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 3 to 6
ft are noted from 10N to 25N. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast, the cold front will move farther southeast
through Thu before dissipating. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed morning, and from 31N59W to eastern
Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are
expected on either side of the front across the waters north of
27N later tonight. These marine conditions will shift eastward
with the front through late in the week. A reinforcing front will
follow the main front, and is forecast to extend from 31N60W to
the Straits of Florida by Fri morning. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm
Lorenzo will move to 21.3N 44.9W Wed morning, 24.0N 42.6W Wed
evening, 26.9N 38.9W Thu morning before dissipating Thu evening.

$$

Chan