507
AXNT20 KNHC 101019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, and continues southwestward
to 06N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N27W to 02N36W
and to near 02N46W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 27W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 03N to 06N between 30W-39W, south
of the ITCZ to the Equator between 25W-37W and within 30 nm south
of the ITCZ between 28.5N-31W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed from 24N85W to 22N89W and to 24N92W. Isolated
showers are near the trough between 85W and 87W. Isolated showers
are also east of the trough to the Straits of Florida. A stalled
frontal boundary extends from western Cuba to inland the Yucatan
Peninsula. Otherwise, broad ridging extends from the southeastern
United States southwestward to the western Gulf. Moderate to
fresh northeast winds are concentrated over the southeastern Gulf
from about 22.5N to 25N between 84W and 89W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in
residual NE swell are over these waters. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are present over the remainder of the basin,
except offshore the Texas coast, where moderate south to southwest
winds are present. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the rest of the of
the Gulf, except in the NE Gulf where seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh west to northwest
winds and moderate seas will develop in the NE Gulf late this
afternoon as a dry cold front moves across the southern Unites
States. The front will cross the northern Gulf waters tonight into
early Thu, with winds turning to the northwest to north in
direction behind the front. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds
and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the Gulf into
early Sun as weak high pressure prevails over the basin. Later on
Sun and Sun night, it presently appears that another cold front
may move across the basin, followed by stronger winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches southwestward from the Great Bahama
Ban to across western Cuba, across the Yucatan Channel into the
Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated weak showers are possible near the
front. Ahead of the front, isolated small showers and thunderstorms
are seen from 18N to 22N between 80.5W and 84W. A trough is
analyzed from near 18N81W to 11N79W. Isolated weak showers are
also from 14N to 18N between 77W and 83W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are confined to south of 11N between 77W
and 82W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes indicate
fresh to strong trade winds present over south-central Caribbean
waters while moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere east of
about 80W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with the fresh to strong trade
winds, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean and 4 to
6 ft elsewhere east of 80W. Light and variable winds are
west of 80W along with seas of 2 to 4 ft in southeast swell,
except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in a north to northeast
swell between the western tip of Cuba and the northeast part of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds in the central
Caribbean will expand to across the eastern Caribbean by late Fri
and into the weekend as a tightening pressure gradient develops
between lower pressures in northern South America and in the
southwestern Caribbean, a stalled front that extends from western
Cuba to inland the Yucatan Peninsula and building high pressure in
the central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore
of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela nightly through
this weekend, with winds possibly reaching near gale at times.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds over the tropical
Atlantic waters will continue into this weekend while funneling
through the passages. New E swell will support rough seas over
this region through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic southwestward
to 31N55W and to 26N69W, where it continues as a stationary front
to the central Bahama and to western Cuba. Satellite imagery
reveals a large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection north of the frontal boundary from 25N to 30N between
71W and 75W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
evident from 24N to 26N between 75W and 77.5W. Isolated showers
and patches of rain are possible elsewhere north of the frontal
boundary mainly east of about 80W.

High pressure of 1021 mb high near 27N39W is the dominate feature
for the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Its associated
pressure gradient is generally providing for gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds from 21N to 24N. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in
long- period north swell is mixing with an east swell component
south of 21N and east of the Lesser Antilles, where fresh to
strong trade winds are quite expansive in coverage. To the north,
tight gradient between the high and a 992 mb low pressure in the
north-central Atlantic is resulting in fresh to strong southwest
winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft north of 29N between 52W and 60W.
Gentle to moderate winds are over the remainder of the Atlantic
basin along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will will begin to
weaken today. It will continue eastward reaching the eastern
forecast waters by Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas
that precede the front north of 28N and east of 60W will diminish
this morning. NW swell associated with this front will expand in
coverage over the eastern zones on Thu as it merges with an
extensive area of E swell. Seas reaching to around 12 ft will be
possible north of 30N and east of 62W this morning before shifting
E of the area. Seas elsewhere will gradually subside from W to E
into early Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds along with
rough seas will develop offshore of northern Florida by this
evening ahead of a cold front that will be moving across the
southern United States. This cold front is expected to move
offshore the southeastern U.S. coast tonight, with fresh to strong
NW winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the front. The
front will weaken as it quickly reaching the NE forecast waters on
Fri. In its wake, high pressure will become established E to W
near 29N into the weekend as yet another frontal boundary attempts
to move across the waters east of northern Florida.

$$
Aguirre