702
AXNT20 KNHC 222313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jan 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2242 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning:
Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail across the E and central
Gulf. The next cold front, associated with low pressure moving
through the southern United States, will enter the NW Gulf Thu
morning, promoting moderate to fresh N to NE winds across much of
the basin. Winds will increase to strong speeds offshore of
Veracruz and Tampico late Thu morning before reaching gale force
early Fri, and rough to very rough seas will accompany the winds.
Winds and seas will diminish on Sat in this area.

W Atlantic Gale Warning:
A cold front from just W of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to the
Florida Straits will progress eastward through Thu morning, with
strong to gale-force winds and very rough seas in its wake, mainly
N of 27N and W of 70W. Earlier this morning scatterometer data
revealed 35 to 40 kt NNW winds near 30N81W just offshore of NE
Florida. A SOFAR buoy recorded 13 ft seas near 30N79W at 1200 UTC.
Fresh to locally strong SW winds will occur ahead of the front
this evening. Winds and seas will quickly subside tonight and
Thu.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Widespread fresh to strong trades and rough seas will occur across
the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean into this weekend.
Winds will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight
through Thu morning, with winds reaching near-gale force in this
area each night Thu through this weekend. Seas will peak 10-13 ft
just northwest of Colombia tonight through Thu.

For more details on these features, please refer to the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Eastern Atlantic Large Swell:
Large long-period N swell is impacting our NE waters, east of 30W
and north of 22N. This 12-second period swell is forcing seas up
to 16 ft, along our N border and near 22W. A SOFAR buoy recorded
seas of 16 ft at 31N22W at 1200 UTC. The large swell will
gradually diminish into Thu.

For more details on the large swell, please refer to the latest
MeteoFrance High Seas Forecast at the website:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from near 07N12W and extends
southwestward to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W to
01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S-05N and
east of 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
Gale Warning in effect.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail in the east and southeast
Gulf with seas 10 to 16 ft. Moderate to gentle winds prevail over
the the northeast and north Gulf with seas 4 to 8 ft. No
significant deep convection is occurring.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to NW winds
occurring from the southwestern through eastern Gulf of Mexico
will slowly diminish through tonight, in the wake of a cold front
in the northwestern Caribbean. Very rough seas associated with
these winds will subside Thu morning. The next cold front,
associated with low pressure moving through the southern United
States, will enter the northwestern Gulf Thu morning, promoting
moderate to fresh N to NE winds across much of the basin. Winds
will increase to strong speeds offshore of Veracruz and Tampico
late Thu morning before reaching gale force early Fri, and rough
to very rough seas will accompany the winds. Winds and seas will
diminish by Sat in this area. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE
to SE winds are expected across the basin this weekend as high
pressure builds in the south-central United States. Locally strong
SE winds and rough seas will be possible offshore of Texas late
Sat into Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from western Cuba through northeastern
Honduras. In its wake, fresh to strong N winds and seas 8-14 ft
are occurring in the Yucatan Channel, with moderate to fresh winds
and seas 4-8 ft farther south. Broad surface ridging is
supporting fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean and
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern part of the basin with
seas 8-12 ft. Isolated moderate convection is occurring within 60
NM of the front.

For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong trades and rough
seas will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern
Caribbean into this weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force
offshore of Colombia tonight into Thu morning, with winds reaching
near-gale force in this area each night Thu through this weekend.
In addition, a long-period E swell will lead to rough seas
through the Atlantic Passages through this weekend. Elsewhere, a
cold front currently extending from western Cuba through
northeastern Honduras will progress slowly southeastward into Thu
before dissipating. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 8
to 14 ft will occur in the wake of the front, including through
the Yucatan Channel, through tonight. Moderate to fresh NE winds,
pulsing to strong at times, and rough seas will occur in the
northwestern basin through Fri as troughing prevails in the
region. Looking ahead, widespread strong N to NE winds and
building seas are slated to develop across the northwestern
Caribbean by this weekend as a cold front moves through the Gulf
of Mexico. Strong winds and building seas will expand into the
central Caribbean through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic, and the large north
swell event in the eastern Atlantic.

A 1029mb high is centered at 32N42W with ridging extending
southeastward to 18N20W and west-southwestward to 21N75W. The
equatorward pressure gradient is forcing fresh to strong trades
from 07N-24N west of 26W with seas 8-12 ft. A strong cold front
stretches from 31N70W over the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits.
Strong to gale-force winds and very rough seas are occurring in
its wake, mainly N of 27N and W of 73W. Isolated moderate
convection is located within 60 NM of the front. Fresh to locally
strong SW winds are occurring ahead of the front north of 29N.
Finally, in the E Atlantic a trough extending from 31N14W to
23N17W is forcing fresh to strong N winds north of 24N and east
of 29W along with large to very large N swell, as described
above. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas 5-8 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from just west of
Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits will progress
eastward through Thu morning, with strong to gale-force winds and
very rough seas expected in its wake, mainly N of 27N and W of
70W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will occur ahead of the
front today. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades and rough seas will
prevail through the weekend south of 23N. Low pressure is
expected to form off the east coast of Florida on Thu, and
moderate to fresh N to NW winds will occur to the north and west
of the low through Fri morning. The low will strengthen and move
northeastward Fri into Sat, promoting widespread fresh to strong N
to NW winds north of 22N and west of 70W by Fri night. An
associated cold front will trail the low pressure and move
eastward this weekend, producing fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds and rough seas in its wake.

$$
KRV