934
AXNT20 KNHC 032317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1034 mb located N of area and the Colombian Low will
continue to support fresh to near gale trades across the Caribbean
through Sat afternoon. The winds should reach gale force briefly
tonight just north of Colombia, with seas building to 13 or 14
ft. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the
marine zone of Madeira in the Meteo-France forecast area through
04/03Z. The forecast calls for westerly winds at times 8 force of
the Beaufort Wind Scale. Very rough seas are expected within
these winds. These marine conditions are associated with a 991 mb
low pressure located just N of the Madeira Islands. For more
details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends southwestward to 04N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to the coast of NE Brazil near
03S43W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is affecting
parts of Sierra Leone and Liberia. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 05W
and 10W. Similar convective activity is from 00N to 02N between
20W and 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into the
Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low
pressure over Mexico supports fresh to strong southerly winds
across most of the basin, particularly W of 85W. Fresh to strong
E to SE winds with seas of 7 to 10 ft are occurring across the
Straits of Florida. An altimeter pass indicated seas of 8 to 11
ft over the NW Gulf. Rough seas are noted elsewhere N of 20N and
W of 90W. Moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.
A band of mainly high clouds related to strong winds aloft crosses
the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and low pressure over N Mexico/Texas will continue forcing
fresh to near gale SE winds across the Gulf through Sat afternoon.
On Sat night, a strong late-season cold front will emerge off of
the Texas coast. Fresh to near gale N winds and rapidly building
seas will follow the front over the W Gulf on Sun and Mon with N
gales possible near Tampico on Sun morning. Looking ahead to Mon
morning, the cold front will extend from the Florida panhandle
to the Bay of Campeche with fresh to strong N winds following
the front and near gale NW winds off of Veracruz. By Tue morning,
winds across the Gulf should drop to fresh or weaker as the cold
front reaches the Yucatan Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please,
refer to the Special Features section for more details.

The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to
strong trade winds across the E and central Caribbean with near
gale force wind offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are also
seen in the Windward Passage, and over the western Caribbean W
of 85W where E to SE winds are evident. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over
the central Caribbean based on altimeter data. Moderate to rough
seas dominate the remainder of the basin. Shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow is moving westward across the
region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. A band of
transverse high clouds, associated with strong upper-level winds
crosses the southern Caribbean.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient from the Bermuda
High to the Colombian Low will continue to produce fresh to near
gale trades across the Caribbean through Sat afternoon. The winds
should reach gale force briefly tonight just north of Colombia.
From Sat night through early next week, the Bermuda High weakens
contributing toward reduced winds over the basin. However, strong
trades will still continue north of Colombia, south of Hispaniola,
and over the Gulf of Honduras on Sun. By Mon and Tue as the weakened
Bermuda High shifts eastward, trades across the Caribbean will
be reduced to only moderate to fresh speeds. Looking ahead, a cold
front may reach the NW Caribbean Tue with winds shifting from
southeasterly to northerly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W in the Meteo-France forecast
region. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more
details.

A cold front is clipping the forecast area roughly between 45W
and 65W. Fresh to strong N winds follow the front Another cold
front crosses the Canary Islands and extends westward to near
26N20W to 27N30W. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are
ahead of the front while mainly fresh NW winds and very rough
seas are observed in the wake of the front. Strong high pressure
of 1034 mb located near 40N57W dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas
in the 8 to 10 ft range are evident S of 23N and W of 45W along
the southern periphery of the ridge. This include the Atlantic
exposures and passages. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Bermuda High will continue
to force fresh to strong trades south of 25N through tomorrow
night. As the Bermuda High weakens on Sat through early next
week, fresh to strong trades will be restricted to near the SE
Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Beginning Sat night, a large N
swell will start impacting the zones east of 65W and will diminish
on Tue. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S winds are slated
to develop off the coast of N Florida on Sun and Mon ahead of a
cold front moving through the SE United States. The cold front is
forecast to move off of the coast Mon night with increasing NE
winds and building seas.

$$
GR