268
AXNT20 KNHC 042212
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ
stretches from 04N23W to 02N50W. Numerous moderate convection is
along and north of both boundaries to 10N.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to near 25N87W,
where it transitions to a warm front that stretches north to a
1016 mb low pressure just offshore the mouth of the Mississippi
River. Scattered moderated convection is along and north of the
warm front. A stationary front then continues west from the low to
a stronger low, at 1014 mb, just offshore Galveston Bay. Extending
SW from this low is a cold front that reaches inland at the
U.S.-Mexico border. Between the cold front and the Texas coast,
scattered moderate convection is ongoing, along with fresh to
strong N winds and building seas of 5 to 7 ft. N of the warm front
in the far NE Gulf, fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist.
Elsehwere in the basin, winds are moderate or less, with seas
mainly of 2 to 4 ft, except under 2 ft within 120 nm of the
Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, the cold front in the NW Gulf will move
southeastward over the basin through Fri, and fresh to locally
strong N to NE winds and moderate seas will occur in the western
Gulf behind the front into Fri afternoon. Localized near- gale
force winds will be possible offshore of northeastern Mexico early
on Fri. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over
the basin Fri evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep
over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N
to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending along 67W from Puerto Rico to Venezuela
is inducing scattered moderate convection over the SE basin, S of
16N and E of 69W. Another surface trough in the NW basin is
producing no sensible weather. Fresh winds and moderate seas
encompass most of the basin aside from the NW, where gentle winds
and seas prevail. Locally fresh trades and rough seas are ongoing
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate
seas are expected over much of the Caribbean through this weekend
as low pressure prevails over the south-central basin and high
pressure drifts eastward in the central Atlantic. Locally strong
winds may pulse offshore of Colombia late tonight. Mainly moderate
trade winds are then expected early next week. Rough seas in E
swell will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles and through the
Atlantic Passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold
front may approach the northwestern Caribbean early next week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas, where
it transitions to a stationary front and continues through the
Florida Straits. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N55W to the
Turks and Caicos. Scattered moderate convection is E of this
trough N of 25N and W of 50W.

Outside of convection, ridging stemming from a 1029 mb high near
35N25W extends across much of the basin. This results in a large
swath of fresh trades and moderate rough seas in E swell south of
a line extending from Puerto Rico to the Canary Islands, and N of
07N. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in E swell south of 22N
and east of 60W will slowly subside into Fri. Elsewhere, a
weakening cold front is slated to move through the central
Atlantic on Fri, leading to fresh NW to NE winds and rough seas
north of 27N and east of 65W through Fri night. A low pressure
system moving through the southern United States will support
fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore of northern Florida by
Fri morning, with fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas
expanding eastward into the central Atlantic this weekend. A cold
front associated with this system will push offshore of the
southeastern U.S. this weekend, leading to locally fresh N to NE
winds in the wake of the front offshore of Florida. Looking ahead,
a complex low pressure system and strong cold front may move
through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week,
supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas
ahead of and behind the front.

$$
Konarik