689
AXNT20 KNHC 021101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Sep 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, from 03N to 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The broad disturbance is producing
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 04N to 15N
between 20W and 35W. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle or latter part of this week. This system
is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 kt
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic throughout the
week. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the
next 48 hours, and a medium chance of formation in the next 7
days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 52W, from 05N to
19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry
Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean along 86W, south of
19N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. There is no significant
convection associated with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues to 11N25W to 09N41W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 10N49W and then from 10N53W to
10N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between
15W and 25W, from 06N to 13N between 35W and 50W, and from 08N to
13N between 51W and 60W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from Everglades City, Florida to
25N90W to Corpus Christi, Texas and continues to generate scattered
showers over the NE and NW Gulf offshore waters. Similar shower
activity is off Tampico, Mexico. A weak pressure gradient prevails
across the region, which support light to gentle variable winds
and slight seas basin-wide, except for moderate NE to E winds
over the NE Florida coastal waters.

For the forecast, the stalled front will remain stationary while
it gradually dissipates through today. The front will be a focus
for showers and thunderstorms for the north-central and southeast
Gulf into mid-week. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in place will
maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally
moderate seas through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the islands is forcing moderate to
fresh easterly winds in the central Caribbean with periods of
locally strong winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Seas in these waters are moderate in the 4-7 ft range. Moderate
or weaker breezes and slight seas are elsewhere. Otherwise, the
eastern extension of the monsoon trough is generating heavy
showers and tstms over the offshore waters of Colombia and eastern
Panama.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving into eastern Honduras
and Nicaragua will move west of the basin through this morning.
Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure building behind the tropical
wave and in combination with low pressure over northern Colombia
will support moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas
across much of the central Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. In addition, moderate to
locally fresh winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through
the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic through
31N73W to a 1009 mb low pressure off Jupiter Island, Florida.
Heavy showers and tstms are ahead of the front, affecting the
northern and central Bahamas and adjacent offshore waters. Winds
west and east of the front are moderate and seas are slight to
moderate in the vicinity of the front. The Azores High extends a
ridge across the remainder central and eastern subtropical waters
and support moderate or weaker winds west of 20W. East of 20W,
fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas prevail due to a
tighter pressure gradient with lower pressure over NW Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will persist
through Thu. Expect moderate to fresh NE winds with moderate seas
north of the front through this morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with this frontal boundary will affect
the Florida seaboard, and the northern and central Bahamas through
Fri. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the pattern from
the central Atlantic through the Bahamas, supporting gentle to
moderate breezes and mostly moderate seas.

$$
Ramos