887
AXNT20 KNHC 120529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon May 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W
Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 00N50. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 12W and 33W,
and also from 04N to 11N between 37W and 48W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to the
Yucatan Peninsula. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of
the front, affecting the eastern Gulf, mainly E of 83W as well as
parts of the Florida Peninsula. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate NW winds are W of the
front. Seas are 4 to 6 ft E of the front, and 2 to 5 ft in the
wake of the front.

For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
occurring along and east of a cold front, currently extending from
the northern Gulf Coast to the Yucatan Peninsula, will continue
through Mon, producing strong and erratic winds and rapidly
building seas. The front will drift eastward early this week,
exiting the basin on Tue. Farther west, a trough is slated to move
across the northern Gulf of America tonight through Mon,
supporting pulsing moderate to fresh W to NW winds across the
northern basin into Tue. Looking ahead, high pressure will build
across the Gulf by midweek. A strengthening pressure gradient
between deepening low pressure in the central United States and
the aforementioned high will support fresh to locally strong S to
SE winds offshore of Texas and Mexico Tue through late week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E winds in the
central Caribbean, with winds locally near gale force in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are in the E Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean. Seas
are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the south-central to SW Caribbean,
and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean.
Seas of 3 to 6 ft dominate the NW Caribbean. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across much of
the Caribbean W of 77W in advance of a cold front currently draped
across the Gulf of America and the Yucatan Peninsula, aided by
upper-level diffluent flow as well as a surface trough located
over the NW Caribbean, which extends from 19N86W southward into
Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough
seas are expected across much of the central Caribbean, including
through the Windward Passage, into early Wed as a strong pressure
gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the
Colombian low. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible
offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela each
afternoon and night. Farther east, pulsing moderate to fresh E
winds and locally rough seas are likely across the Atlantic
Passages into the eastern Caribbean through midweek. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish by late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 10N58W to 18N58W, and is
acting to develop scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
an area from 14-17N between 52-56W. Scattered showers are also
noted from 16-27N and E of 33W. Otherwise, high pressure
dominates much of the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored by a
1029 mb high centered near 33N43W. The associated ridge reaches
the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles and the NE Caribbean. Under the
influence of this system, moderate to fresh winds prevail across
much of the Atlantic S of 24N along with moderate seas. E winds
are fresh to strong in an area from 10-19N between 48-61W, as well
as offshore Guyana. To the N of 24N, gentle to moderate trades
prevail along with seas of 3-6 ft, with the exception of areas W
of 76W, where recent scatterometer data indicated moderate to
fresh SE winds increasing in advance of a cold front currently
over the Gulf of America. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted across much of this region, with scattered
moderate convection occurring through the Florida Straits.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE to S winds are
expected to develop tonight and continue into Tue offshore of
central and northern Florida as a strengthening pressure gradient
develops between high pressure in the western Atlantic and low
pressure in the southeastern United States. A cold front
associated with the low pressure system is slated to move offshore
of the southeastern U.S. on Tue and meander through midweek,
before weakening and lifting northeastward. Elsewhere, pulsing
moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N this week.
Locally rough seas in NE swell will impact the waters near the
Lesser Antilles and across the passages into the Caribbean through
late week.

$$
Adams