709
AXNT20 KNHC 261643
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Apr 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal at 13N17W and continues southwestward to 01N27W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N27W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 09W and 20W,
and from 00N to 05N between 45W and 51W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed elsewhere from 00N to 05N between 20W and
36W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting in general
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas, except in the
NE Gulf where light to gentle and slight seas prevail. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are noted to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula
where a surface trough is analyzed, and in the Straits of Florida.
A stable airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters this weekend and into early next week supporting
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will
pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and
central Bay of Campeche through Tue night due to local effects
related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula.
Winds of moderate to fresh speeds and moderate seas are forecast
in the Straits of Florida through the period due to persistent
high pressure NE of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A band of multilayer clouds, with embedded showers, extends from
northern Colombia to the NE across the eastern Caribbean and the
northern Leeward Islands into the central Atlantic. This cloudiness
is associated with strong SW winds aloft. Elsewhere, shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted, producing
isolated to scattered passing showers. High pressure north of the
Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds off
northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward
Passage and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with
the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night in the
Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, with
mainly moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds
will pulse to strong south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, as
high pressure north of the area strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough remains over the Atlantic forecast waters
to the NE of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers, with embedded
thunderstorms, are noted near and to the E of the northern end of
the trough axis. This convective activity is affecting mainly the
waters N of 25N between 54W and 60W. Recent scatterometer data
provide observations of moderate to fresh winds on either side of
the trough. A frontal boundary along 31N is supporting fresh NE to
E winds roughly N of 29N between 55W and 65W. The pressure gradient
between high pressure ridging to the east of northern Florida and
lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh
NE to E trades over the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of
a 1029 mb high pressure located E of the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this system and lower pressures in NW Africa is
resulting in fresh to strong NE winds N of 15N and E of 25W. Seas
are 6 to 9 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will continue to
weaken while the frontal boundary will move eastward over the
next couple days. A cold front will move S of 31N Sun night, then
reach from near 31N61W to 26N72W to Daytona Beach Florida by Mon
evening. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow in behind the
front.

$$
GR