346
AXNT20 KNHC 070913
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Rafael:
Hurricane Rafael is centered near 24.2N 84.6W at 07/0900 UTC or
130 nm WNW of Havana Cuba, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt
with gusts to 110 kt. Seas are peaking around 27 ft near the
center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 22N
to 26N between 81W and 85W. Rafael should turn westward with some
decrease in forward speed during the next 2-3 days.Hurricane
Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western
Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the
higher terrain. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this
week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. For the latest Rafael NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov
for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 90 nm e of the wave axis from 09N to 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N14W and continues
south-southwestward to near 07N16W where it transitions to the
ITCZ which continues to 05N23W to 10N37W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 25W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
about Hurricane Rafael.

Aside from conditions associated with Rafael, moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are over the NE Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft are over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael is near 24.2N 84.6W at 4 AM
EST, and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
969 mb. Rafael will move to 24.4N 85.9W this afternoon, 24.5N
87.7W Fri morning, 24.6N 89.4W Fri afternoon, 24.6N 90.5W Sat
morning, 24.6N 91.7W Sat afternoon, and 24.6N 92.4W Sun morning.
Rafael will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.2N 93.0W early Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6-8 ft generated by Rafael
continue over the NW Caribbean. An deep layer trough over the
eastern Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the waters near Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin
Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail.

For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael is over the SE Gulf near 24.2N
84.6W at 4 AM EST, and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 969 mb. Marine conditions will improve over
the northwestern Caribbean today as Rafael moves further from the
area. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas
are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh NE winds over adjacent
waters of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Windward
Passage through early Fri. Otherwise, large NE to E swell is
forecast to enter the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean into
Fri morning, then subsiding afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and
western subtropical Atlantic waters and Hurricane Rafael in the SE
Gulf is supporting fresh to strong winds E of central and
southern Florida, where seas are in the 5-8 ft range. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and a surface trough E of the Lesser
Antilles is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft
from 20N to 25N between 50W and 65W. A cold front enters the
discussion waters near 31N22W to 22N37W then becomes stationary to
22N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
within 120 nm E of the front N of 22N. Aside from the areas
discussed above, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-10 ft
prevail W of the front. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-7 ft
are noted E of the front. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft, prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the fresh to strong E to SE winds and
rough seas across the Florida adjacent waters and offshore waters
N and E of the Bahamas will continue through early today. Winds
and seas will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by
Fri. A trough of low pressure just northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the couple of days while it moves westward near the
Greater Antilles. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible during the next couple of days across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and
the southeastern Bahamas.

$$
AL