396
AXNT20 KNHC 150906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Sara is centered near 16.0N 85.1W at 15/0900 UTC
or 60 nm ESE of Isla Guanaja Honduras, moving W at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are estimated
to be around 14 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is within 180 nm in the E semicircle and 330 nm in the W
semicircle of Sara. A continued westward motion at a slower
forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A slow west-
northwestward motion is forecast by late Sat. On the forecast
track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the
northern coast of Honduras through early Sat, then approach the
coast of Belize early Sun. Some slight strengthening is possible
during the next couple of days when the center of Sara moves over
water to the north of Honduras. Through early next week, heavy
rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic and life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of
Honduras. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El
Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican
State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Atlantic Gale Warning and a Significant Swell Event: Large N
swell generated by an extratropical low pressure located NE of
Bermuda is propagating across the forecast waters, building seas
to 12 to 19 ft north of 26N between 50W and 70W. Rough to very
rough seas are expected N of 25N between 49W and 65W today and
tonight, subsiding Sat. Meanwhile, a new cold front has emerged in
the SW N Atlantic, just offshore SE Georgia and far NE Florida.
The front will extend from 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida after
sunrise with fresh to strong winds, increasing to gale force
north of 29N on either side of the front this evening. By Sat
morning, the front will extend from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas. By Sun morning, the front will reach from 30N55W to near
Puerto Rico, but with only fresh winds N of 29N by then. Very
rough seas will follow this second front through the weekend,
reaching very high near 29N65W Sat evening, decaying early next
week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Guinea
and Sierra Leone at 09N13.5W and continues just offshore to
08.5N16.5W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N16.5W to 05N33W to 06N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side
of the ITCZ east of 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extending from near Tampa Bay, Florida to just NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf near 20.5N97W. No significant
convection is noted near the front. Moderate to locally fresh N to
NE winds follow the front with seas of 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft
in the coastal waters. Winds are gentle and anticyclonic ahead of
the front, with 2 to 4 ft seas in E to SE swell.

For the forecast, the front will move SE while washing out
through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the
front. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sara is in the NW Caribbean and
is forecast to dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula by Mon.
Looking ahead, moderate to fresh E to SE return flow, locally
strong, will dominate the basin Sat night through early next week.
The next cold front should enter the NW Gulf by early Tue, moving
across the basin through mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Sara.

Widely scattered thunderstorms continue across much of the
Caribbean west of 77W in association with Tropical Storm Sara as
described above. Aside from Sara, light to gentle winds are found
east of 74W, with moderate for fresh winds west of 74W. Seas are 3
ft or less east of 74W, except 6 to 8 ft near and in Atlantic
Passages, and 2 to 4 ft west of 74W away from Sara. A frontal
boundary has stalled just to the north or along the Greater
Antilles, and is aiding in the development of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over portions just south of the front.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Sara is along the coast of
Honduras near 16.0N 85.1W at 4 AM EST, and is moving west at 8
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and
the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Sara will move to 16.0N
85.9W this afternoon, 16.0N 86.3W Sat morning, 16.2N 86.7W Sat
afternoon, 16.5N 87.5W Sun morning, inland to 17.0N 88.7W Sun
afternoon, and move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and weaken
to a tropical depression near 17.9N 90.1W Mon morning. Sara will
dissipate early Tue. Meanwhile, large N swell will be impacting
the Atlantic passages through early next week. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere away from the influence of
Sara, locally fresh at times south of the Dominican Republic and
across the approach to the Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information about the ongoing swell event over the Atlantic and
an upcoming Gale Warning associated with a vigorous cold front
entering the SW N Atlantic.

A cold front extending from 19.5N55W to near the Anegada Passage
continues as stationary to just N of Puerto Rico and along the
northern coast of Hispaniola and NE Cuba. Fresh to strong S to SW
winds are noted north of 22N within 180-240 nm ahead of the front.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft across that area. mainly gentle to moderate
winds are found elsewhere west of the front and away from the new
front just offshore of the SE United States, under a ridge
extending from a broad high centered near 28.5N69W. An exception
is moderate to fresh W to NW winds north of 29N between 50W and
65W. To the east of the front, another broad high is positioned
near 24.5N33W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds dominate the
waters east of the front. Another cold front extends from the
Iberian Peninsula to across the Canary Islands to 30N28W. Seas of
7 to 10 ft in NE swell are north of the front. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
across the remainder of the open waters east of the central
Atlantic front, except 6 to 8 ft from 14N to 22N between Africa
and 22W due to a fetch of locally fresh winds there combined with
NW swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, large to very large N swell will
continue sweeping across our waters before subsiding into early
Sat while the initial front dissipates. Meanwhile, a new cold
front just offshore SE Georgia and far NE Florida will quickly
move eastward across our waters. The front will extend from 31N74W
to Cape Canaveral, Florida after sunrise with fresh to strong
winds, increasing to gale force north of 29N on either side of the
front this evening. By Sat morning, the front will extend from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. By Sun morning, the front
will reach from 30N55W to near Puerto Rico, but with only fresh
winds N of 29N by then. Very rough seas will follow this second
front through the weekend, reaching very high near 29N65W Sat
evening, decaying early next week. High pressure will build across
the waters early next week. A reinforcing front or trough may
clip the NE waters Tue and Tue night with increasing winds and
building seas.

$$
Lewitsky