535
AXNT20 KNHC 120005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Oct 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Gale Warning: The remnant low
pressure of Jerry near 28N64W 1005 mb is interacting with high
pressure to its northeast and east. The resultant tight pressure
gradient is producing gale-force winds of 30 to 40 kt within 150
nm in the NE and 210 nm in the SE quadrant along with seas of 12
to 18 ft. The remnant low will gradually dissipate by late
tonight, but gale-force south winds of 30 to 35 kt are expected
north of 29N between 58W and 63W and with seas of 12 to 19 ft in
south to southwest swell. These conditions are forecast to
diminish Sun. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen from 24N to 28N between 58W and 64W. An area of numerous
moderate to strong convection is south of the remnants of Jerry
from 18N to 22N between 61W and 65W. This activity is from a
remnant feeder band.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1000 mb gale-force low is
located off the southeastern U.S. coast near 31N78W, with a cold
front stretching southwestward to the vicinity of West Palm
Beach. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal
northwest to north winds 25 to 35 kt to the west and southwest
of the low to near 28N. Gusts to around 40 kt are possible with
these winds. Seas within these gale condition are about 10 to 17
ft east of 81, and 8 to 11 ft west of 81W. The gale conditions
are forecast to continue tonight, then diminish Sun morning as
the low pressure moves northward along the East Coast of the
United States.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both of these gale warnings.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from
03N to 16N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 300 nm west of the wave
from 05N to 14N. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form next week while moving west-northwestward to northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic.

The central Caribbean tropical wave that was along 78W at 12 UTC
has been absorbed into a broad area of low pressure that is
supported by a broad mid to upper-level trough. Associated
convection will be described below under Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and extends southwestward to 10N25W, to
07N31W and to 06.5N37.5W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
08N45W, to 09N50W and to 09N60W. Aside from convection described
in the tropical waves section, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 37.5W and 42W, and
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W-50W. Similar activity
is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 52W-54W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends across South Florida southwestward and
westward to near 26N85W. Latest scatterometer satellite data
pass over the eastern Gulf shows mostly fresh north to northeast
winds over that portion of the Gulf due to the pressure gradient
between the front and deepening low pressure off the southeastern
U.S. coast. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are elsewhere
north of 20N while gentle to moderate northeast winds are south
of 20N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft north of 20N, and 3 to 5 ft south of
20N.

For the forecast, the combination of high pressure over the
eastern United States and the aforementioned low pressure off
southeastern U.S. coast will support moderate to fresh northeast
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft over the NE Gulf. Winds will
diminish overnight across the basin as the low pressure moves
farther north, and pulls a cold front across the far southeastern
Gulf and Straits of Florida. Ridging will build across the Gulf
by midweek, allowing for gentle to moderate easterly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface low pressure encompasses the northwest part of the
basin as low pressure also exists in the mid and upper-levels
over this same area. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection over central Cuba that reaches
south to near 19N between 80W-82W. This activity appears to be
aided by upper-level divergence. Similar activity is over the
northeast part of the sea north of 15N between 64W and 67W,
including the areas of the Virgin Islands and waters just
southeast and south of Puerto Rico. This activity is from a
remnant feeder band of former Tropical Storm Jerry. Latest
scatterometer satellite date passes indicate light to gentle
east-southeast to southeast winds across the basin along with
seas of 3 to 5 ft. The exception is in the lee of Cuba, where the
scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong south winds north
of 20N between 79W and 82W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest winds are south of
central Cuba this morning ahead of a trough over the northwest
Caribbean. High pressure over the central Atlantic will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean
through midweek, however a weak pressure pattern will maintain
gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the sections above for details on a post-tropical
cyclone Jerry gale warning and on the tropical wave moving
currently moving across the eastern part of the basin.

A 1000 mb gale-force low is located off the southeastern U.S.
coast near 31N78W, with a cold front stretching southwestward to
the vicinity of West Palm Beach. Aside from the gale conditions
described above under Special Features, northwest to north winds
of 20 to 25 kt are west of the front south of 28N with seas of
7 to 11 ft. To the east and southeast of the low, fresh to strong
southeast to south winds are north of 29N between 71W and 74W.
Seas with these winds are 8 to 12 ft in southeast swell. Seas
increase near the periphery of the gale warning area associated
with the remnant low of Jerry.

An area of numerous moderate to strong convection is south
of the remnants of Jerry from 18N to 22N between 61W and 65W.
This activity is from a remnant feeder band.

In the central Atlantic, a rather weak 1015 mb low is analyzed
near 22N46W. No convection is occurring with this feature. Latest
scatterometer satellite data passes indicate moderate or lighter
winds across the tropical Atlantic along with seas in the
general range of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the remnant low of Jerry is near
27.6N 63.6W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving north at 14 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Jerry will dissipate Sun morning.
Winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas will persist
north of 27N between 57W and 63W through late Sun. Meanwhile a
1000 mb low pressure moderate
seas and scattered thunderstorms is centered near 31N77W, supporting gale
force winds and rough to very rough seas through the afternoon
mainly north of 29N and west of 77W. An associated cold front
will extend from the low center across south Florida into the
W-central Gulf of America. Winds and seas will diminish through
early Mon as the low pressure moves north of the area. Looking
ahead, a cold front will move southward to the east of Bermuda
Tue into Wed, bringing fresh to strong west to northwest winds
and rough seas to the waters north of 28N and east of 60W.

$$
Aguirre