314
AXNT20 KNHC 281635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Feb 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1625 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and continues to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from
02N25W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is present south
of 07N and between 20W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak cold front is moving across central Florida and extends
into the central Gulf waters. No significant convection is noted
with this boundary. The remainder of the basin is under a weak
high pressure pattern that supports gentle to locally fresh
(mainly off Veracruz) easterly winds and slight to locally
moderate seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the
basin later today. High pressure will develop over the NE Gulf
waters in the wake of the front tonight while a surface trough in
the Bay of Campeche dissipates. A new cold front is forecast to
sink across the NE Gulf waters Sat night and exit the SE basin Sun
morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds will follow this front.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will develop over the western half
of the Gulf Sun evening, expand across the remainder Gulf by Mon
morning, and reach fresh to strong speeds over the western half of
the Gulf Tue morning ahead of the next cold front forecast to
come off the Texas coast late Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the basin forces fresh to locally near
gale-force NE-E trade winds across the south-central Caribbean.
This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas
in these waters are 6-9 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas
are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the north-central and
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail. Pockets of low- level moisture continue
to traverse the Caribbean waters sustaining isolated, light
showers.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse each night offshore
Colombia through Tue night while strong trades are forecast to
affect the Gulf of Venezuela and Venezuela offshore waters Sat
through Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds in the central and
eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon
morning and continue through Tue night. Otherwise, the tail of a
cold front will move across northern Cuba Sun. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will lead to the development of
moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba Sun night into Mon
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from an extratropical cyclone in the NW
Atlantic to central Florida. A few showers are noted near this
boundary. Farther east, a stationary front enters the basin near
31N59W to a 1017 mb low pressure near 27N64W, followed by a
surface trough to NW Hispaniola. Scattered showers are occurring
within 120 nm of the stationary front. Recent scatterometer
satellite data indicate that moderate to fresh southerly winds are
present north of 27N and between 53W and 72W. Seas in these waters
are 4-7 ft. Weak high pressure dominates the remainder of the
waters west of 65W, supporting light to locally moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas.

In the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front is weakening as it moves
southward over the cold waters, currently extending from 25N15W to
24N30W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are evident behind the
frontal boundary. A strong low pressure near Portugal is producing
a large swell region generating seas of 8-12 ft north of 26N and
east of 27W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the
influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered to the northwest
of the Azores. Recent satellite-derived wind data show fresh to
locally strong easterly winds over much of the central and eastern
Atlantic waters. These winds are supporting seas of 5-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
Bermuda to the central Bahamas offshore waters this evening while
weakening and dissipate just E of Bermuda tonight. A second cold
front will move off the NE Florida coast Sat night, reach from
Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sun morning, from 31N60W to the
Windward Passage Mon morning, and from 31N50W to 26N60W with tail
stalling to the central Bahamas Tue morning. Fresh to strong SW
winds are forecast ahead of the front N of 29N Sun and Sun night.
Fresh NE winds following the front will reach strong speeds E of
the Bahamas Tue morning as strong high pressure builds N of the
stationary portion of the front.

$$
Delgado