273
AXNT20 KNHC 060927
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Kirk is centered north of the area near 33.5N 49.0W at
06/0900 UTC or 1100 nm W of the Azores, moving NNE at 20 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are
estimated at 51 ft, just N of the area. Numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 600 nm in the NE quadrant, 360
nm in the SE quadrant, 150 nm in the SW quadrant, and 420 nm in
the NW quadrant. An acceleration toward the northeast and east-
northeast is expected over the next few days while Kirk moves
across the northeastern Atlantic. Although weakening is expected
through midweek, Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next
next day or so before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by
early Tue. Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the east coast of
the United States. These swells will continue spreading northward
along the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today,
and to the Azores on Mon. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Leslie is centered near 12.9N 37.3W at 06/0900 UTC or
760 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 9
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are
estimated at 24 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 210 nm of the center, except within 360 nm in the
SE quadrant. Leslie is moving toward the northwest and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible today, but weakening is
forecast to begin on Mon and continue through midweek.

Tropical Storm Milton is centered near 23.0N 94.9W at 06/0900
UTC or 310 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated
at 13 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 60 nm in the NE quadrant, 150 nm in the S semicircle, and
90 nm in the NW quadrant. An eastward to east-northeastward
motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a
faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is
forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Steady to rapid
strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is
forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could become a
major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida
today and Mon well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more
directly related to the system expected later on Tue through
Wed night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public Advisories for Tropical
Storm Milton, Hurricane Kirk, and Hurricane Leslie at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands with its axis near 27W, south of 18N, moving slowly west
at 5 to 10 kt. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted
near the northern tip of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends
SW to 05N23W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06.5N43W to 12N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 12N to 16N between
the coast of Africa and 19W, and from 07N to 14N between 55W and
62W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information about Tropical Storm Milton.

Other than Milton, a 1010 mb low is analyzed near 25.5N87.5W while
a surface trough stretches from 27N82.5W through the low to
25N94W. Winds north of the trough and east of 94W are fresh to
locally strong as seen on an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass,
where seas are 3 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 ft
or less are mainly east of Milton and south of the low and trough,
with moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere in the
western Gulf. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
south of 26N to the east of 90W with locally higher winds and seas
possible in and near them.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Milton is near 23.0N 94.9W at
5 AM EDT, and is moving east at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Milton will move to 23.0N 94.1W this afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 92.9W Mon morning, 22.9N
91.4W Mon afternoon, 23.4N 89.6W Tue morning, 24.5N 87.4W Tue
afternoon, and 26.0N 85.3W Wed morning. Milton will change little
in intensity as it moves to 29.0N 80.7W early Thu. Meanwhile a
frontal trough or front will linger across the northern Gulf ahead
of Milton with fresh to strong winds and building seas, mainly
north of 26N. Conditions may improve across the basin by the end
of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A diffluent pattern aloft combined with a surface trough covers
the NW Caribbean while an upper-level trough extends from the
Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean. This upper-level pattern
is helping to induce convection over the Greater Antilles as well
as SW of the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica. A weak
pressure gradient across the region supports light to gentle
winds. Seas are generally 3 ft or less, higher and near Atlantic
passages due mainly to distant and departing Hurricane Kirk.

For the forecast, Milton will move to 23.0N 94.1W this afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 92.9W Mon morning, 22.9N
91.4W Mon afternoon, 23.4N 89.6W Tue morning, 24.5N 87.4W Tue
afternoon, and 26.0N 85.3W Wed morning. Milton will change little
in intensity as it moves to 29.0N 80.7W early Thu, with impacts
possible in the far NW Caribbean, including near the Yucatan
Channel. Meanwhile, long period NE to E swells associated with
distant and departing Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the
Tropical N Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through today.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas
will persist across the basin into the early part of the week.
Winds may freshen in the eastern Caribbean mid-week due to an
incoming tropical wave. Long-period swell associated with
Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the Tropical N Atlantic,
may impact the Atlantic waters mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricanes Kirk
and Leslie, as well as on Tropical Storm Milton which may impact
the Atlantic waters offshore eastern Florida next week.

A weak low is analyzed near 30.5N62W as depicted on earlier
scatterometer data. Winds are moderate to fresh north of 27N
between the low and 70W. Otherwise, broad ridging dominates the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters outside of Kirk and
Leslie. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate away from the systems,
locally fresh offshore northern Morrocco. As for seas, large swell
associated with Kirk dominate most of the waters north of 18N and
east of the Bahamas to 40W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft elsewhere away from
Kirk and Leslie, except locally 7 to 9 ft near the fresh winds
offshore northern Morrocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, Milton will move to 23.0N 94.1W this
afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.9N 92.9W Mon
morning, 22.9N 91.4W Mon afternoon, 23.4N 89.6W Tue morning, 24.5N
87.4W Tue afternoon, and 26.0N 85.3W Wed morning. Milton will
change little in intensity as it moves to 29.0N 80.7W early Thu.
Meanwhile, long period NE to E swells associated with distant and
departing Hurricane Kirk will continue to impact the waters E of
the Bahamas through the remainder of the weekend, subsiding during
the early part of the week. Looking ahead, farther E, swells
associated with Hurricane Leslie, forecast to remain E of the
area, may impact the waters E of 60W by mid-week.

$$
Lewitsky