630
AXNT20 KNHC 072310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC sat Feb 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over
northwestern Colombia will continue to support pulsing winds to
gale force each night and early morning offshore of Colombia
through next week. Rough seas are expected near and to the west
of the strongest winds. The Gale Warning is in effect for tonight
and again Sat night, then gale conditions are possible at night
Sun through Wed. Peak seas are expected to reach 11 or 12 ft
within these winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W and continues SW to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from
03N20W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N to 03N W of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida
into the Gulf waters. A trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan
Peninsula over the central Bay of Campeche. A light to gentle
anticyclonic flow dominates most of the basin except the SE Gulf,
including the Straits of Florida, and the Yucatan Channel, where
mainly moderate NE to E winds prevail. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except
locally 3 to 5 ft in the Straits of Florida, the Yucatan Channel
and W of the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is
evident.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon
and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through the middle
of next week. Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas into the middle of
next week. Under a southerly wind flow, a warm and moist airmass,
moving over colder nearshore waters will favor the development
of marine fog over parts of the Gulf coast tonight through mid-
morning Sat. Areas like Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Mobile and
Pensacola have issued a marine dense for advisory. Visibility
will be reduced to one mile or less.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Feature Section for details on a Gale Warning off
the coast of Colombia.

The pressure gradient between a broad subtropical ridge centered
north of the area and the Colombian low is supporting pulsing
winds to gale force off the coast of Colombia, and fresh to
strong NE to E winds across the remainder of the central
Caribbean, with rough seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are also
noted in the Windward Passage with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate
seas. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is
moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing
showers. The trade winds are transporting patches of low level
moisture, with possible showers, from the Caribbean into parts
of Honduras and Nicaragua.

For the forecast, aside from the winds off Colombia, fresh NE to
E trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder
southwestern and central Caribbean through the middle of next
week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward
Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the
remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the
Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern
Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure centered near
37N42W to the Florida Peninsula. Farther east, a frontal trough
runs from 31N32W to 27N40W. Fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds and rough seas follow the trough. A 1025 mb high pressure
is situated just N of the Madeira Islands near 34N17W and
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. This
pattern is supporting fresh to locally strong trades across the
tropical Atlantic where seas are 6 to 9 ft based on altimeter
data. Gentle to moderate winds dominate most of the waters N of
25N with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
between the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands and
eastern Cuba, including approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft in this area.

For the forecast W of 55W, mainly fresh trade winds will prevail
south of 25N through Tue night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds are expected into early next week. East swell will bring
rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of Puerto Rico through
Sun, with a new set of E swell moving into these waters the middle
of next week.

$$
GR