011
AXNT20 KNHC 040905
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1032 mb located north of the near Bermuda and the
Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to near gale trades
across the Caribbean through Sat afternoon. The winds should reach
gale force overnight just north of Colombia, with seas building
to 13 or 14 ft.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the
north- central Atlantic will move into the discussion waters south
of 31N late Sat and reach from 31N40W to 29N55W by Sat evening.
SW winds to gale force are likely within 90 nm ahead of the front
north of 28N. Winds will diminish to below gale force by Sun
morning as the front shifts southward. Looking ahead, even though
the winds may gradually diminish, the front will be followed by
large to very large NW swell that will envelop most of the
Atlantic east of 60W through the middle of next week.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning issued by Meteo-
France remains in effect for the marine zone of Madeira through
05/00Z. The forecast calls for westerly winds at times 8 force of
the Beaufort Wind Scale. Very rough seas are expected within
these winds. These marine conditions are associated with a 990 mb
low pressure off Portugal. For more details, refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 05N09W and extends southwestward to 03N12W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N12W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02S42W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 06N between
15W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Fresh to strong SE winds are noted across the basin between high
pressure over the western Atlantic and 1000 mb low pressure over
west Texas. Seas are 7 to 10 ft over the western Gulf, and 5 to 7
ft over the eastern Gulf except for up to 8 ft in the Straits of
Florida. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident at
this time. However, platform observations are showing visibility
as low as 1 1/2 miles in sea fog across the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High and low pressure over N Mexico/Texas will continue forcing
fresh to near gale SE winds across the basin through Sat
afternoon. The moist SE flow may allow areas of sea fog to persist
across the northern Gulf into Sat. A strong late- season cold
front will emerge off of the Texas coast Sat evening. Fresh to
near gale N winds and rapidly building seas will follow the front
over the western Gulf Sun and Mon with northerly gales possible
near Tampico on Sun morning, and off Veracruz by late Sun
afternoon. The cold front will extend from the Florida panhandle
to the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon followed by fresh to strong N
winds. Looking ahead, the front will weaken as it moves southeast
of the area Tue followed by weak high pressure over the northern
Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish accordingly through Tue night
in all but the far southeast Gulf where fresh winds and rough seas
may persist.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please refer
to the Special Features section for more details.

Recent scatterometer satellite data confirms fresh to strong
trade winds across much of the basin, with winds near gale force
occurring in the central Caribbean and also offshore NW Colombia.
Concurrent altimeter satellite data shows seas are 8 to 12 ft
over the central and eastern Caribbean. Strong to near-gale force
winds are also observed across the Gulf of Honduras, and extend as
far north as the southern coast of Quintana Roo. Seas are likely 7
to 9 ft in this area. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the
basin. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving
westward across the region producing isolated passing showers
primarily into the Leeward and Windward Islands.

For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient from the Bermuda High to
the Colombian Low will continue to produce fresh to near-gale
force trade winds across the Caribbean through Sat afternoon.
From Sat night through early next week, the Bermuda High weakens
contributing toward reduced winds over the basin. However, strong
trades will still continue north of Colombia, south of Hispaniola,
and over the Gulf of Honduras on Sun and Sun night. Rough to very
rough seas will accompany the winds. By Mon and Tue as the
weakened Bermuda High shifts eastward, trades across the Caribbean
will be reduced to only moderate to fresh. Looking ahead, a cold
front may reach the northwest Caribbean Tue with winds shifting
from southeasterly to northerly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W in the Meteo-France forecast
region. Please refer to the Special Features section for more
details.

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters at 31N38W and
continues to 27N50W and on to 27N63W. Fresh N to NE winds and 6
to 8 ft follow the front. The subtropical ridge is anchored by
1030 mb high pressure east of Bermuda near 24N60W. This pattern is
supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas south
of 25N and west of 45W, with near-gale force winds pulsing off the
northern coast of Hispaniola and near the northern approaches to
the Windward Passage. Mostly moderate winds and seas are noted
elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, another cold front moving
into Morocco extends into the eastern Atlantic from 25N15W to
25N30W. Gentle to moderate breezes follow the front and dominate
east of 35W, but with N swell of 7 to 11 ft north of 15N and east
of 35W, and 5 to 7 ft farther south.

For the forecast west of 55W, the strong Bermuda High will
continue to force fresh to strong trades south of 25N through
tonight. As the Bermuda High weakens on Sat through early next
week, fresh to strong trades will be restricted to near the SE
Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Beginning Sat night, a large N
swell will start impacting the waters east of 60W and will subside
through late Tue. Fresh to locally strong S winds will develop
off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a
cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The cold
front is forecast to move off of the coast Mon night, and reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by mid week, followed by fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas.

$$
Christensen