625
AXNT20 KNHC 302226
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Beryl is centered near 11.1N 56.5W at 30/2100 UTC
or 220 nm SE of Barbados, moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt
with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently near 37 ft. A
continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday
morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late
Monday through Wednesday.Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are
likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain
an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall in
the Windward Islands. Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through
Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in
the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in
vulnerable areas. Large swells generated by Beryl are expected
across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next
couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These
swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov

Newly upgraded Tropical Depression Three is centered near 19.7N
94.9W at 30/2100 UTC or 160 nm ESE of Tuxpan Mexico, moving W at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are
around 11 ft. The depression will continue moving west until it
dissipates over eastern Mexico late Monday. TD Three is expected
to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of
eastern Mexico into Monday, with localized maximum totals of 15
inches possible. This rainfall will result in areas of flooding,
with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. Seas are
expected to continue to be around 11 ft through early Mon morning.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Three
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Showers and
thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. This system has a MEDIUM chance of
tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a HIGH
chance of development in the next 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on Invest AL96.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave associated with Invest AL96 is
along 34W, south of 12N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 10N between 30W and 36W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from Hispaniola
southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 14N to 17N between 67W and 73W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 09N23W to 05N44W. No segments of the ITCZ
are analyzed at this time. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 11N between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Three.

Outside of Tropical Depression Three in the Bay of Campeche,
fresh to strong E winds prevail west of 90W with 5-7 ft seas.
East of 90W, E winds are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas. 1022
mb high pressure is centered in SE Louisiana, leading to gentle to
moderate winds S of 26N and light to gentle winds N of 26N. Seas
are 2 to 4 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the
Florida, Mississippi and SE Louisiana coast.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Three is near 19.7N 94.9W
at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Three will strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.0N
96.6W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 20.2N 99.4W Mon
afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. The pressure gradient
between a ridge along the Gulf coast states and the newly upgraded
tropical depression is supporting an area of fresh to strong
winds across the Gulf waters S of 25N and W of 91W where seas are
in the 8 to 11 ft range. Marine conditions are forecast to
gradually improve later on Mon as the tropical cyclone moves
inland. Meanwhile, distant Hurricane Beryl in the Tropical N
Atlantic may reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, with tropical storm
conditions possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the
Yucatan Channel and the E Bay of Campeche. Beryl is forecast to be
near 18.8N 84.4W Thu afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details
on MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL located east of the Windward Islands and
Invest AL96 located in the eastern Atlantic.

Fresh to strong trade winds are noted off the coast of Colombia
and the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong winds are also
occurring in the central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras. Otherwise, moderate trade winds prevail. Seas are 4-7
ft.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 11.1N 56.5W at 5
PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 960 mb. Beryl will move to 11.7N 59.1W Mon morning,
12.8N 62.6W Mon afternoon, 14.2N 66.3W Tue morning, 15.4N 70.2W
Tue afternoon, 16.4N 74.0W Wed morning, and 17.3N 77.7W Wed
afternoon. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 18.8N 84.4W Thu afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh to strong E to SE
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through Tue morning in
advance of Beryl. A surge of fresh to strong winds may move into
the tropical N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then into the E
Caribbean thereafter, associated with an area of low pressure
which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on MAJOR
HURRICANE BERYL and Invest AL96 in the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough parallels the Florida Coast along 79W, just west
of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 28N
between 77W and 82W, including the Florida Straits. The remainder
of the Atlantic is guided by the subtropical Bermuda-Azores High
Pressure centered north of the area. Satellite scatterometer data
from this morning indicates gentle to moderate trades across the
basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters. Fresh to strong trades are
south of 20N and west of 50W, north of Hurricane Beryl. Fresh to
strong NE winds are near the coast of Africa from 20N to 28N,
east of 20W, including the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N,
locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at times,
through the next several days. Hurricane Beryl is near 11.1N 56.5W
at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Beryl will move to 11.7N 59.1W Mon
morning, 12.8N 62.6W Mon afternoon, 14.2N 66.3W Tue morning, 15.4N
70.2W Tue afternoon, 16.4N 74.0W Wed morning, and 17.3N 77.7W Wed
afternoon. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 18.8N 84.4W Thu afternoon. A decaying cold front may drop
south of 31N Tue through Wed.

$$
AReinhart