Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
290
FGUS73 KARX 131514
ESFARX
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-312359-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
909 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
...FINAL OF THREE PLANNED 2025 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...
The overall risk for flooding this spring is below-normal along the
mainstem of the Mississippi River and its associated tributaries
across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin.
This information is the third of three planned spring flood and
water resources outlooks providing spring snowmelt and flood
potential information for this upcoming spring. The information that
goes into this outlook was collected from a number of National
Weather Service partners including: United States Geological Survey,
US Army Corps of Engineers, Midwestern Regional Climate Center, US
Drought Monitor, Climate Prediction Center, NASA, MN DNR, and NOAAs
Office of Water Prediction.
This outlook is a summary of the past and present basin conditions
for parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into
central Wisconsin.
To view the NWS La Crosse 2025 Spring Hydrologic Outlook storymap,
which includes a more detailed description of the flood outlook and
images, refer to: https://www.weather.gov/ARX and select the 2025
Spring Flood Outlook news headline near the top of the page.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS...
The overall flood risk for the Upper Mississippi River Basin is
BELOW NORMAL.
...Past Precipitation...
The dryness from meteorological autumn continued through
meteorological winter and into meteorological spring. Precipitation
totals since September 1st, 2024 ranged from 6.28" near Oelwein, IA
to 13.36" near Mauston, WI (COOP). Precipitation anomalies ranged
from near normal to 6" drier than normal. The largest departures (4-
6") are in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and west-central
Wisconsin. This dryness has resulted in abnormally dry (D0) to
moderate (D1) drought across much of the La Crosse Hydrologic
Service Area (HSA).
...River Conditions...
Overall, the amount of water currently moving through our rivers is
near to below the long-term normal for this time of year. Lack of
snowmelt runoff this year, due to a below-normal seasonal snowfall,
is the main contributor.
...Soil Moisture and Frost Depths...
Last September, most of the region was in an "abnormally dry" to
"moderate drought" status per the U.S. Drought Monitor. Since then,
drought has expanded slightly across the region. Due to the drought,
soil moisture across the region is below normal.
Due to the periodic shots of arctic air this winter, frost depths
are well above normal for this time of year. While the top couple of
inches of frost did thaw in the past two weeks, much of our region
still has 12 to upwards of 36 inches of frost. Any future
precipitation will be slower to absorb into the soils until the
remaining frost dissipates. Much of the flood threat this spring
hinges on any heavier spring rains falling on partially frozen soil,
running off into the rivers more quickly.
...Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content...
At current, there is little to no snowpack across our upstream
drainage basins. While there is still time for additional snowfall
and precipitation to fall, what little snow pack we do have is
expected to play little to no role in increasing streamflows at this
time.
...River Ice Conditions...
Recent polar-orbiting satellite images and USGS river webcam
imagery suggests that river ice across our region is breaking up in
a controlled manner, with more open water appearing in the last week
with recent warm weather.
...Weather Outlook...
The above conditions can and often change. The biggest factor
affecting spring flood risks is the weather conditions during the
sensitive period of melting snow. This year, without the presence of
a snowpack, future precipitation is the main driver of any flood
risk moving forward.
From March 20-26 (8-14 day), the Climate Prediction Center has the
odds tilted toward above-normal temperatures and precipitation. The
1991-2020 temperature normals range from lower to mid 30s north of
Interstate 94, and from the mid-30s to lower 40s elsewhere and
precipitation normals range from 0.40 to 0.75.
For the remainder of March and early April, it appears that a Madden
Julian Oscillation (MJO) will be moving through phase 3 (Indian
Ocean) into phase 4 (Maritime Continent). Typically with a MJO in
these phases, the western ridge will retrograde west into the
western Pacific. This typically favors above-normal temperatures in
the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Daily average temperatures are
typically in the mid and upper 30s north of Interstate 94, and in
the lower and mid-40s elsewhere. As far as precipitation, there are
no clear signals. Typically during this time period, precipitation
ranges from 0.7 to 1.15.
...Definitions...
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than
normal.
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.
The term moderate flooding is used to indicate some inundations of
structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or
transfer of property to higher elevations may be needed.
The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundations of
structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or
transfer of property to higher elevations will be needed.
...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate and Major Flooding...
Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Lake City 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 28 <5 9 <5 6
Wabasha 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 20 61 <5 23 <5 8
Alma Dam 4 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5
MN City Dam 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : <5 31 <5 16 <5 6
Winona Dam 5A 655.0 659.0 661.0 : 9 40 <5 9 <5 6
Winona 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 11 48 <5 25 <5 9
Trempealeau 647.0 649.0 651.0 : 7 36 <5 19 <5 6
La Crescent 641.0 643.0 645.0 : <5 33 <5 15 <5 7
La Crosse 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 13 49 <5 28 <5 8
Genoa 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 15 52 <5 14 <5 7
Lansing 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 11 <5 7 <5 <5
Lynxville 625.0 628.0 631.0 : <5 26 <5 9 <5 <5
McGregor 16.0 19.0 22.0 : 14 56 <5 30 <5 10
Guttenberg 15.0 18.0 21.0 : 12 49 <5 16 <5 5
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 18.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Root River
Houston 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 12.0 16.0 18.0 : 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar River
Lansing 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Austin 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 7 <5 5 <5 <5
Charles City 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 8 21 <5 8 <5 7
:Turtle Creek
Austin 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 7 14 <5 11 <5 <5
:Turkey River
Spillville 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 11 35 9 25 6 13
Elkader 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 19 42 7 14 <5 <5
Garber 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 13 30 8 16 5 7
:Upper Iowa River
Bluffton 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Decorah 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dorchester 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 10 18 8 8 5 <5
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 15 25 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dodge 10.5 11.0 12.0 : 11 12 6 5 <5 <5
:Black River
Neillsville 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Black River Falls 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 27 61 13 32 <5 7
Galesville 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 23 60 14 40 <5 <5
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Viola 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 11 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Readstown 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 28 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
Soldiers Grove 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 15 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
Gays Mills 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 40 42 5 7 <5 <5
Steuben 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 12 15 5 8 <5 <5
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 18 <5 7 <5 <5
:Yellow River
Necedah 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 26 72 9 45 <5 14
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
At Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City 10.3 10.3 10.6 11.4 13.4 15.0 15.6
Wabasha 9.5 9.5 9.6 10.2 11.8 12.8 13.2
Alma Dam 4 7.4 7.5 7.6 8.3 10.2 11.9 12.4
MN City Dam 5 654.0 654.0 654.3 655.0 657.1 659.1 659.7
Winona Dam 5A 649.4 649.4 649.8 650.4 652.6 654.8 655.5
Winona 7.6 7.6 7.8 8.7 11.1 13.3 14.0
Trempealeau 642.5 642.6 642.8 643.4 645.0 646.7 647.3
La Crescent 635.6 635.7 636.0 636.9 638.6 640.6 640.9
La Crosse 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.8 10.5 12.3 12.6
Genoa 626.4 626.5 626.8 628.0 629.8 631.6 631.8
Lansing 9.0 9.2 9.3 10.1 11.6 13.7 14.0
Lynxville 618.4 618.6 618.8 619.9 621.8 623.9 624.2
McGregor 10.7 10.9 11.3 12.9 15.4 17.2 18.1
Guttenberg 9.8 9.9 10.4 11.9 13.8 15.2 16.2
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 7.8 7.9 8.8 10.7 12.3 15.4 17.9
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.7 6.8 9.3 14.4
:Root River
Houston 4.7 5.0 5.5 6.8 8.2 11.0 15.3
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.4 5.9 8.6 13.3
:Cedar River
Lansing 11.7 12.2 13.1 13.8 15.2 16.0 16.9
Austin 6.0 6.3 7.1 8.2 9.9 11.2 12.6
Charles City 4.5 4.6 5.3 6.7 8.2 11.1 14.4
:Turtle Creek
Austin 4.1 4.2 4.8 6.2 7.4 8.6 11.8
:Turkey River
Spillville 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.8 5.9 9.5 15.2
Elkader 7.3 7.5 8.3 9.3 11.4 14.7 17.2
Garber 8.0 8.2 9.8 11.4 14.4 19.1 24.3
:Upper Iowa River
Bluffton 4.7 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.8 7.8 10.2
Decorah 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.4 7.4 9.3
Dorchester 8.3 8.6 9.1 10.0 10.9 14.1 19.0
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 4.5 4.7 6.1 7.3 7.7 8.3 8.6
Dodge 7.4 7.4 8.2 8.7 9.2 10.6 11.1
:Black River
Neillsville 7.4 7.5 8.1 9.3 10.6 13.0 13.7
Black River Falls 40.9 41.0 42.5 44.4 47.2 51.7 52.3
Galesville 7.7 7.7 8.6 10.4 11.7 13.1 13.4
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 5.0 5.3 6.1 7.2 8.8 10.6 11.0
Viola 9.3 9.6 10.1 11.0 12.5 14.2 15.0
Readstown 6.8 7.0 8.1 10.0 11.2 12.1 13.6
Soldiers Grove 8.2 8.4 9.4 11.4 12.7 13.6 15.1
Gays Mills 9.2 9.4 10.6 12.4 13.4 14.2 15.4
Steuben 8.6 8.7 9.2 10.2 11.2 12.2 13.3
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.2 7.2 7.9 8.6
:Yellow River
Necedah 11.7 11.7 12.6 13.8 15.1 16.3 16.9
In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed flows (kcfs) for the valid
time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs)
At Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City 37.6 33.4 27.9 21.6 16.3 12.8 10.0
Wabasha 37.6 33.4 27.9 21.6 16.3 12.8 10.0
Alma Dam 4 38.2 34.3 28.2 22.0 16.6 13.1 10.3
MN City Dam 5 39.6 35.9 29.1 23.0 17.5 13.7 11.0
Winona Dam 5A 40.2 36.7 29.6 23.2 17.7 13.9 11.2
Winona 40.3 36.8 29.7 23.2 17.8 13.9 11.2
Trempealeau 41.0 38.1 31.2 23.9 18.3 14.4 11.8
La Crescent 42.7 39.7 33.7 25.2 19.1 15.4 12.8
La Crosse 43.2 40.1 34.1 25.7 19.4 15.7 13.1
Genoa 44.8 41.7 35.3 27.0 20.5 16.5 13.9
Lansing 42.6 42.4 36.6 28.0 21.6 17.1 14.5
Lynxville 43.0 42.8 36.9 28.2 21.7 17.3 14.7
McGregor 51.2 45.5 39.6 28.5 22.0 17.4 14.9
Guttenberg 59.0 51.7 46.0 34.9 27.4 22.8 20.2
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Root River
Houston 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Cedar River
Lansing 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Austin 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charles City 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
:Turtle Creek
Austin 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Turkey River
Spillville 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elkader 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Garber 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
:Upper Iowa River
Bluffton 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Decorah 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dorchester 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Dodge 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
:Black River
Neillsville 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Black River Falls 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Galesville 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Viola 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Readstown 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Soldiers Grove 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Gays Mills 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Steuben 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 6.1 5.6 3.9 2.7 2.1 1.7 1.6
:Yellow River
Necedah 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 and 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of rise associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s National
Water Prediction Service.
All of this information is also available in graphical format
on the internet at:
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse
The next outlook will be issued in late March.
$$
JAW/Boyne