Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
913
FGUS73 KARX 271709
ESFARX
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-282359-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse
WI 1038 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025
...SECOND OF THREE PLANNED 2025 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...
The overall risk for flooding this spring is near- to below-normal
along the mainstem of the Mississippi River and its associated
tributaries across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and
southwest Wisconsin.
This information is the second of three planned spring flood and
water resources outlooks providing spring snowmelt and flood
potential information for this upcoming spring. The information that
goes into this outlook was collected from a number of National
Weather Service partners including: United States Geological Survey,
US Army Corps of Engineers, Midwestern Regional Climate Center, US
Drought Monitor, Climate Prediction Center, NASA, MN DNR, and NOAAs
Office of Water Prediction.
This outlook is a summary of the past and present basin conditions
for parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into
central Wisconsin.
To view the NWS La Crosse 2025 Spring Hydrologic Outlook storymap,
which includes a more detailed description of the flood outlook and
images, refer to: https://www.weather.gov/ARX and select the 2025
Spring Hydrologic Outlook news headline near the top of the page.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS...
The overall flood risk for the Upper Mississippi River Basin is
BELOW NORMAL.
...Past Precipitation...
The dryness from meteorological autumn continued through
meteorological winter, precipitation totals ranged 5.29 near
Oelwein, IA to 13.31 near Hillsboro, WI (COOP). Precipitation
anomalies ranged from near normal to 6 inches drier than normal.
This extended period of dryness has resulted in abnormally dry (D0)
to moderate (D1) drought across much of the La Crosse Hydrologic
Service Area (HSA). This dryness has resulted in area rivers and
streams running near to below normal.
...River Conditions...
Overall, the amount of water currently moving through our rivers is
near to below the long-term normal for this time of year. Lack of
snowmelt runoff this year, due to a below-normal seasonal snowfall,
is the main contributor.
...Soil Moisture and Frost Depths...
Last September, most of the region was in an "abnormally dry" to
"moderate drought" status per the U.S. Drought Monitor. Since then,
drought has expanded slightly across the region. Due to the drought,
soil moisture across the region is below normal.
Due to the periodic shots of arctic air this winter, frost depths
are well above normal for this time of year. Our entire region has
12 to upwards of 36 inches of frost and any future precipitation
will be very slow to absorb into the soils until the frost
dissipates. Much of the flood threat this spring hinges on any
heavier spring rains falling on frozen soil, running off into the
rivers more quickly.
...Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content...
A lack of precipitation this winter has left little to no snowpack
for a spring melt runoff. While there is still time for additional
snowfall and precipitation to fall, our current snow pack is
expected to play little to no role in increasing streamflows at this
time.
...River Ice Conditions...
Periods of well-below normal temperatures has allowed for ice to
develop on area rivers. This ice could lead to elevated river levels
if a rapid warm up and precipitation occurs concurrently.
...Weather Outlook...
The above conditions can and often change. The biggest factor
affecting spring flood risks is the weather conditions during the
sensitive period of melting snow. This year, without the presence of
a snowpack, future precipitation is the main driver of any flood
risk moving forward.
During the next week (February 27 to March 5), precipitation is
expected to be near to above normal. The 1991-2020 precipitation
normal ranges 0.3 to 0.4. During this same week, temperatures are
expected to average warmer than normal (1991-2020 normals range from
25F to 30F). These temperatures are expected to melt much of the
remaining snow pack across the region.
From March 6 through March 12 (8-14 day), the odds are tilted toward
below-normal precipitation and near- to above-normal temperatures.
During this week, precipitation typically averages around 0.40 and
average daily temperatures range from 28 to 33F.
For the remainder of March, it appears that a Madden Julian
Oscillation (MJO) will be moving through phases 2 and 3 (Indian
Ocean). While there is general agreement for this, there are still
some uncertainties on its strength. Typically with a MJO in these
phases, the western ridge will retrograde west into the western
Pacific. This typically favors above-normal temperatures in the
Upper Mississippi River Valley. Daily average temperatures are
typically in the mid and upper 30s. As far as precipitation, there
are no clear signals. Typically during this time period,
precipitation ranges from 1 to 1.5.
...Definitions...
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than
normal.
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.
The term moderate flooding is used to indicate some inundations of
structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or
transfer of property to higher elevations may be needed.
The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundations of
structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or
transfer of property to higher elevations will be needed.
...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate and Major Flooding...
Valid Period: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Lake City 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 5 28 <5 9 <5 6
Wabasha 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 22 60 <5 23 <5 8
Alma Dam 4 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5
MN City Dam 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : 6 31 <5 16 <5 6
Winona Dam 5A 655.0 659.0 661.0 : 11 40 <5 9 <5 6
Winona 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 13 47 5 25 <5 9
Trempealeau 647.0 649.0 651.0 : 10 36 <5 19 <5 6
La Crescent 641.0 643.0 645.0 : 8 33 <5 15 <5 7
La Crosse 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 13 49 6 28 <5 8
Genoa 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 15 51 <5 14 <5 7
Lansing 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 11 <5 7 <5 <5
Lynxville 625.0 628.0 631.0 : 5 26 <5 9 <5 <5
McGregor 16.0 19.0 22.0 : 18 55 5 32 <5 10
Guttenberg 15.0 18.0 21.0 : 14 49 <5 16 <5 5
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 7 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Root River
Houston 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 10 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar River
Lansing 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Austin 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 7 <5 5 <5 <5
Charles City 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 6 22 <5 8 <5 7
:Turtle Creek
Austin 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 5 15 <5 10 <5 <5
:Turkey River
Spillville 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 40 42 23 28 14 15
Elkader 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 30 45 10 18 <5 <5
Garber 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 20 34 11 20 6 8
:Upper Iowa River
Bluffton 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Decorah 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dorchester 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 16 22 7 9 <5 <5
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 13 25 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dodge 10.5 11.0 12.0 : 8 12 6 5 <5 <5
:Black River
Neillsville 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Black River Falls 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 35 60 13 28 <5 8
Galesville 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 31 56 17 39 <5 <5
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Viola 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
Readstown 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 26 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
Soldiers Grove 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 12 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
Gays Mills 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 40 42 <5 6 <5 <5
Steuben 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 9 15 <5 6 <5 <5
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 6 18 <5 7 <5 <5
:Yellow River
Necedah 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 36 75 14 47 <5 16
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
At Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City 7.7 8.6 9.8 11.8 13.5 15.3 16.2
Wabasha 7.9 8.5 9.2 10.6 11.9 13.0 13.7
Alma Dam 4 5.6 6.2 7.1 8.7 10.4 12.1 13.1
MN City Dam 5 652.0 652.6 653.6 655.4 657.3 659.4 660.7
Winona Dam 5A 646.8 647.5 648.8 650.9 652.9 655.1 656.6
Winona 6.1 6.5 7.1 9.2 11.3 13.6 15.1
Trempealeau 640.8 641.3 642.1 643.7 645.3 647.0 648.2
La Crescent 633.2 634.1 635.4 637.3 639.0 640.6 642.0
La Crosse 5.8 6.3 7.3 9.2 10.8 12.3 13.5
Genoa 623.5 624.6 626.1 628.3 630.0 631.5 632.9
Lansing 8.3 8.5 8.9 10.1 11.7 13.7 15.3
Lynxville 615.7 616.6 618.1 619.8 621.9 623.9 625.6
McGregor 8.9 10.0 10.9 13.1 14.9 17.6 19.2
Guttenberg 7.7 9.1 10.3 12.1 13.6 15.6 16.9
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 6.2 6.6 8.5 10.4 11.9 14.8 19.2
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 3.5 3.8 4.1 5.4 7.2 10.5 15.3
:Root River
Houston 4.2 4.5 6.6 8.2 11.8 14.9 16.1
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 2.2 2.4 4.0 6.0 7.6 9.2 10.2
:Cedar River
Lansing 11.2 11.6 12.4 13.7 15.0 15.6 16.0
Austin 5.0 5.6 6.6 8.1 9.6 10.8 11.3
Charles City 3.1 3.6 4.5 6.5 7.8 9.8 12.2
:Turtle Creek
Austin 2.4 2.6 4.3 5.7 7.3 9.0 10.8
:Turkey River
Spillville 2.5 3.0 4.4 7.2 10.7 13.7 15.3
Elkader 6.7 7.4 8.4 10.6 12.9 16.1 19.6
Garber 7.3 7.9 9.5 12.3 15.8 20.6 24.9
:Upper Iowa River
Bluffton 4.3 4.6 5.4 6.0 6.9 7.7 8.5
Decorah 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.8 6.8 8.6
Dorchester 8.0 8.3 8.9 9.7 11.4 15.6 18.5
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 4.3 4.5 6.0 7.0 7.6 8.3 8.5
Dodge 6.6 7.0 8.2 8.6 9.2 10.1 11.0
:Black River
Neillsville 6.9 7.8 8.8 9.9 12.1 13.6 14.3
Black River Falls 40.0 41.0 43.0 45.1 49.2 52.0 52.9
Galesville 6.9 7.7 9.5 10.7 12.4 13.2 13.6
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 4.9 5.4 6.0 7.1 8.4 10.1 10.7
Viola 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.9 12.3 13.8 14.4
Readstown 6.2 6.8 7.9 9.4 11.0 11.8 12.2
Soldiers Grove 7.1 8.1 9.2 10.9 12.5 13.2 13.6
Gays Mills 8.6 9.0 10.1 12.2 13.3 13.9 14.1
Steuben 8.1 8.3 9.1 10.0 11.1 11.8 12.1
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 3.7 4.0 4.7 6.0 7.6 8.2 9.1
:Yellow River
Necedah 11.4 11.9 13.2 14.4 15.7 16.7 17.5
In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed flows (kcfs) for
the valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs)
At Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/03/2025 - 06/01/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City 23.4 21.6 19.2 17.1 14.6 12.5 11.6
Wabasha 23.4 21.6 19.2 17.1 14.6 12.5 11.6
Alma Dam 4 23.9 22.5 19.5 17.5 15.1 12.7 11.8
MN City Dam 5 25.8 23.8 20.1 18.3 15.7 13.4 12.4
Winona Dam 5A 25.7 24.1 20.4 18.5 16.1 13.6 12.6
Winona 25.7 24.1 20.4 18.5 16.1 13.7 12.7
Trempealeau 25.6 25.0 21.1 19.5 16.9 14.3 13.1
La Crescent 27.1 26.9 23.0 21.0 18.0 15.4 14.0
La Crosse 27.3 27.1 23.4 21.5 18.4 15.8 14.3
Genoa 28.1 27.9 24.5 22.4 19.5 16.8 15.1
Lansing 27.1 27.0 25.7 23.4 20.3 17.7 15.8
Lynxville 27.4 27.2 26.1 23.7 20.5 17.9 15.9
McGregor 30.0 29.8 27.1 24.6 20.9 18.2 16.1
Guttenberg 39.6 38.6 33.9 30.8 26.7 23.4 21.1
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
:Root River
Houston 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Cedar River
Lansing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Austin 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Charles City 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
:Turtle Creek
Austin 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Turkey River
Spillville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elkader 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Garber 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
:Upper Iowa River
Bluffton 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Decorah 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dorchester 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Dodge 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
:Black River
Neillsville 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Black River Falls 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Galesville 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Viola 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Readstown 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Soldiers Grove 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Gays Mills 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Steuben 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 4.9 4.6 4.1 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.7
:Yellow River
Necedah 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 and 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of rise associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the NWS`s National Water Prediction
Service.
All of this information is also available in graphical format
on the internet at:
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse
The next outlook will be issued on March 13th, 2025.
$$
JAW/Boyne