109
FXUS63 KARX 241705
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected today. Rain
  amounts will be minimal (<0.05") with scant (<10%) potential
  for a thunderstorm.

- Temperatures look to remain cooler than normal over the next 7
  days with a slow warming trend. Additional spotty light rain
  may occur Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon/evening.
  Rain may then return next Saturday. Hazardous weather is not
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Cooler with scattered showers today:

07z WV satellite reveals an upper low over James Bay with cyclonic
flow aloft over the Great Lakes region. Cold front pushed through
early yesterday and cooler and drier conditions have filtered into
the region with temperatures in the mid 50s and dewpoints in the
lower 50s.

Today, post-frontal light shower pattern continues as steep low
level lapse rates develop below a relatively moist 700-800mb layer.
Resulting instability should generate isolated to scattered showers
but warm temperatures in the 600-700mb layer should prevent deep
convection and thus thunderstorms from developing. Short updrafts
and increasingly dry conditions at the surface will keep rain
amounts minimal, a few hundreths at best. With heights aloft being a
bit lower than yesterday, expect highs to be a few degrees cooler,
mainly in the 60s.

Cooler than normal with a slow warming trend, occasional shower
potential Monday through Saturday:

Cyclonic flow pattern continues to dominate our weather through
Thursday with northwesterly or northerly flow aloft occurring.
Guidance suggests a few upper impulses will translate downstream
over the region and, while timing varies across guidance, best
signal appears to center on Monday afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon/evening. That said, available moisture through the column
during both of these periods looks to a major limiting factor so
have gone with no precip mentions with this update. Moving ahead to
the latter part of the week, uncertainty increases as some guidance
suggests a more zonal patter may develop. Should this occur, enough
moisture may return to the region for precip on Saturday. In any
case, long term ensemble guidance, including related ML outlooks,
suggest the chance for any hazardous weather is minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR to high-end MVFR conditions currently present across the
area as another deck of scattered to broken stratus begins to
form over the area. All sites should lift to VFR in the coming
hours and this should continue for the remainder of the period.
Some isolated showers are expected to form this afternoon,
mainly for areas along and east of the Mississippi, but impacts
overall should be minimal with CIGs and visibilities remaining
VFR throughout. Northwest winds will continue to gust through
the afternoon and into the early evening hours around 25 kts
before tapering off around 00Z. Winds will become light out of
the west/northwest overnight and should stay at less than 10 kts
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Barendse