317
FXUS63 KARX 162347
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
647 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers from this afternoon into
  tonight and isolated to scattered showers Saturday. There
  maybe an isolated storm from southwest into central Wisconsin
  this afternoon and early evening. Rainfall totals will be up
  to a tenth of an inch.

- More rain expected Monday into Wednesday. Highest totals
  (1-1.5 inches) along and south of Interstate 90. In northeast
  Iowa, there is a 20-45% chance that the rain may exceed 2
  inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Tonight into Saturday

A closed 500 mb low will produce scattered to numerous showers
as it moves east southeast from northern Minnesota east into
southern Lower Michigan. With the best instability (500-1500
J/kg) east of the area, not anticipating many thunderstorms in
our area. If there is one, it would be in southwest and central
Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts will be mainly less than a tenth of
an inch.

Considered issuing a Wind Advisory west of the Mississippi
River, but model soundings show that the mixing depths will
continue to decrease throughout the afternoon. As this occur,
the ability to tap into the higher winds aloft will decrease.

Monday into Wednesday

A closed low pressure area will move east from eastern Nebraska
and southeast South Dakota east into the southern Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, north of this low, there will be a 500 mb ridge
located the north and northeast of this low. Dry easterly winds
on the south and southwest periphery of this high will continue
to advect dry air into parts of the forecast area. This will
result in a distinct northern extent of this rain. There is
still some uncertainty on where this will occur. When compared
to yesterday, the rain has shifted slightly further north. While
this was the case, the 50th percentile of the precipitable
water vapor has remained stay near 1 inch. At this time, rain
totals will likely range from a 0.5 to 1 inch north of
Interstate 94 and 1 to 1.5 inches elsewhere. In northeast Iowa,
there is a 20-45% chance that the rain may exceed 2 inches.

It continues to look like the higher instability and shear will
remain just south of the forecast area. As a result not
anticipating severe weather at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions continue for most locations, except for portions
of southeastern Minnesota. A few bands of light to moderate
rain will move through the area this evening into the overnight
period. Throughout this evening, MVFR to IFR CIGS move into the
area and are expected to persist through much of Saturday.
Sustained southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 kts with gusts of 25
to 30 kts are expected to continue through the evening, with the
strongest winds for areas along and south of I-90, until a
northwest wind shift takes place tonight, roughly between 04Z
and 08Z. These northwest winds will be slightly lower than today
with sustained winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts between 20 and 25
kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Cecava