998
FXUS63 KARX 302336
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
536 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures are expected through the new week.
  The coldest temperatures are expected Thursday morning, when
  subzero lows are likely (40-95%), leading to wind chills in
  the double digits below zero. Winds may ramp up around
  sunrise, leading to dangerously cold wind chills.

- A quick hitting system moves through the Midwest Monday
  afternoon and evening, which will likely (30-90%) bring
  flurries and light snow to our forecast area. The chance for
  more an inch of additional snow is decent (30-70%), but this
  chance is confined mainly to far southwest Wisconsin.

- Snow may return Wednesday and around next Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold temperatures ahead

Tonight, winds will drop and skies will clear somewhat, allowing for
temperatures to fall into the single digits. However, potential for
stratus to arrive from central MN and increasing mid to high level
clouds late in the nighttime period will limit overall radiative
cooling. Therefore, the chance for subzero lows is small (xx-xx% per
30.13z NBM).

Next upper trough slides southeast Wednesday with the associated
surface ridge building over IA Wednesday night into Thursday. Re-
invigoration of cold air near the surface and clearing skies will
likely (40-95%) lead to subzero lows. While winds look to be
relatively light as well, they may be enough near sunrise for wind
chills to reach -25 west of the Mississippi River valley. This will
depend on exact details of where the surface ridge will be centered
and how much of a breeze occurs around sunrise as the surface
pressure gradient tightens a bit.

Quick shot for snow in northeast Iowa, far southwest Wisconsin Monday

Upper trough currently over UT will advance eastward over IA/MO/IL
Monday into Monday night. Short period of modest southerly moist
advection should occur ahead of this feature Monday morning,
allowing for additional snow  to develop as the wave moves east. The
wave and best forcing remain well to our south, however some modest
lift should still occur in our CWA, particularly in far SW WI and
adjacent areas in IA where weak 700mb frontogenesis may be present
per 30.12z GFS. Vertical profiles suggest this modest lift will
include the DGZ so do think measurable snow is likely (55-90%)
southeast of a New Hampton IA to Mauston WI line. Short duration and
weak nature of aforementioned lift should limit snow accumulations,
although still a decent chance (30-70%) to reach an inch along and
southeast of an Oelwein IA to Richland Center WI line.

Additional snow potential Wednesday and around next Saturday

Another quick moving upper trough Wednesday should lead to at least
a few flurries and snow showers during the day Wednesday before
ushering in the aforementioned reinforcement of cold air. Broad
agreement across the 30.12z guidance suite that this will be a
decidedly positively tilted trough, a pattern that tends to limit
southerly moist advection to the region. This case appears to fit
that mold with available moisture supporting flurries as the trough
passes. Should it pass during the afternoon, steep low level lapse
rates extending to the DGZ could (20-35%) develop, leading to a few
snow showers as well.

More neutrally tilted open trough looks to advances eastward
sometime around next Saturday. Exact details and timing remain open
questions, but if everything comes together, would get enough snow
for impacts to roads. Will need to monitor this period over the
coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions currently present across the region.
CIGs are expected to fall into the MVFR/IFR range for the
terminals through the overnight hours though some uncertainty
remains with if CIGs will bottom out in the low-end IFR range
or high-end LIFR range. The chances for LIFR would largely
remain over SE Minnesota and NE Iowa, potentially impacting the
RST terminal. Have left mention of this out of the package for
now but should confidence increase with updated guidance, a drop
to LIFR may be needed for the 06Z package. Though some high
resolution guidance is indicating CIGs lifting to VFR after 21Z,
am not sure how realistic this is given the increased moisture
and chances for precipitation so have left CIGs MVFR at the
terminals through the end of the period. Have also introduced
PROB30s for the snow chances as higher confidence still remains
well south of the terminals. Winds will remain light and
variable overnight becoming more southerly by daybreak but
staying under 10 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Barendse