665
FXUS63 KARX 302342
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms mid afternoon into early evening, Severe
not expected.

- Dry Tuesday!!!

- 4th of July holiday weekend shaping up to be "active" - moreso for
the start. Shower/storm chances move in later Fri night through Sat.
Fireworks could be impacted for some. Sun is trending dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

> AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: scattered showers/storms into mid evening

Upper level shortwave trough will continue to drop southeast across
MN this afternoon (per watervapor satellite imagery), spinning
across western/central WI by 00z. RAP builds as much as 1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE ahead of the shortwave while also showing a bit of a push
from a southeast running 850 mb jet, nosing into SE MN by 00z. Shear
likely not a player locally, mostly in the 3-6 km layer but likely
displaced ahead of the instability. Expect scattered convective to
push in/pop by mid/late afternoon (3-5 pm), tracking southeast and
exiting the local area by 8-9 pm (if latest HRRR holds true). Not
expecting severe weather.


> TUESDAY: shaping up dry! Hopefully we didn`t jinx it...

A sfc high will be sliding southeast across the central/southern
plains with broad upper level ridging hanging west across the
rockies. The setup favors keeping any perturbations in the flow
north of the forecast area - with the promise of a dry day. Probably
going to hear a lot of lawn mowers.


> WED INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND: smattering of rain chances into Fri,
greater threat for showers/storms late Fri night into Sat.

The GEFS and EPS take the upper level ridge east, sliding over the
upper mississippi river valley by Friday morning. Some rain threat
still exists as bits of shortwave energy, mcvs, lingering sfc
boundaries etc could still provide enough `umph` to the summery
atmosphere to pop some convection. Where/when/if showers/storms
manifest into Friday are far from certain - although the EPS/GEFS
members favor keeping much of this threat north of I-90.

The 4th of July weekend is looking more active. An upper level
shortwave trough is progged to move off the west coast and across
the northern plains by 00z Sat. Not particularly strong in most of
the ensemble guidance (which the WPC clusters also suggest), and
could shift north of the local area. However, a cold front will
reflect at the sfc and slip across the region. Building instability
and increasing moisture/transport provide a good environment for
storms. Wind shear fairly meager at this time - limiting a severe
risk. As of now, late Fri night through Sat harbors the higher rain
chances - with some potential to impact the 4th of July fireworks
for some.

Sunday is trending dry.

Those with outdoor plans this holiday weekend (which is probably a
majority of us) will want to keep a close eye on the forecast as we
move through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions and northwest winds through the TAF period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through
central and southwestern Wisconsin and are expected to leave
that area over the next couple of hours. All precipitation
chances will diminish by 03Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Cecava