357
FXUS63 KARX 200317
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1017 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday before cooling
  to more seasonal temperatures lasting into early next week.

- Chances for rain return Saturday and possibly Sunday as next
  storm system moves into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated at 1015 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Above normal temperatures through Saturday then cooler for the
weekend into next week:

Surface high pressure builds in for Friday, however 850mb
temperatures do not cool significantly until the next cold front
Saturday night. Highs Friday and Saturday should range from the
mid 70s to the mid 80s. As another 500mb trough moves through
central Canada and the closed low over the Southwest U.S. moves
into the Four Corners region, moisture returns northward and
ahead of the trough Saturday. The forcing appears to be somewhat
split, but there is enough to mention rain chances 40-70%
Saturday night and possibly into Sunday. There is not great
agreement for Sunday on the strength of the push of dry air with
the cold front and the strength of the storm system moving
through Colorado with the deterministic runs. The ensembles do
have 40-70 probabilities of 0.25" or more. We`ll continue to
monitor this though with the deterministic EC being drier for
Sunday. Similarly for Monday, depending on the closed low
tracking into the region, precipitation may affect parts of the
forecast area. We are on the cool side of the front Sunday into
mid-week, thus temperatures remain seasonable in the 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Patchy shallow fog is expected to develop through the rest of
the night as rain departs to the east, with IFR to localized
LIFR visibilities before sunrise. The fog burns off quickly
after sunrise with VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF
period. Winds turn to the west by the mid morning with WNW winds
for the remainder of the day at 5-10kts, becoming light and
variable overnight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Skow