600
FXUS63 KARX 111621
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1120 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm with highs in the mid-60s to low 70s through
  Monday, slightly cooler midweek before warmth returns.

- Windy for Sunday with afternoon gusts west of the Mississippi
  River topping 30-35 mph.

- Periodic chances for rain next week, though overall rainfall
  amounts look light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Today: Dry and Pleasant

A 1024-mb surface high pressure cell currently centered over
western Lake Superior propagates eastward throughout the day,
with light winds this morning gradually increasing out of the
southeast at around 10 mph in the afternoon, mainly west of the
Mississippi River. Aside from high cirrus spilling over the
upper level ridge axis, no sensible weather impacts are
expected.

Sunday: Windy, Dry till Late Afternoon

South to southeasterly winds continue to increase Saturday
night into Sunday morning as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of a deepening lee trough over the western Dakotas. The
latest short range guidance has continued to backtrack on the
previously forecast showers west of the Mississippi River,
resulting in warmer temperatures and deeper mixing than was
shown in earlier solutions. Have pushed winds to the NBM 90th
percentile west of the Mississippi River given the 30-40 kt
900-850-mb jet centered over south-central Minnesota in the
RAP/HRRR forecast profiles.

Any showers that do manifest themselves in the afternoon will
be high-based (10 kft) and of minimal impacts. The window of
opportunity for showers Sunday night within the 320K theta-e
ridge will be short-lived as the passage of the cold front
between midnight and sunrise will bring the shower threat to an
end. The overall impacts from the showers will be transient and
minimal with the LREF mean QPF of 0.10-0.20" and even the 90th
percentile of the ensemble guidance staying under 0.50".

Periodic Bouts of Showers Next Week

Broad WSW flow sets up in the wake of our early week rain.
Given the lower amplitude nature of the pattern, model solutions
begin to diverge quickly by midweek with the timing of any
disturbances propagating through the flow and the eventual
breakdown of the pattern later in the week. In all likelihood we
will see at least one round of showers in the Tuesday-Thursday
timeframe with growing confidence in another round of rain in
the Friday to Saturday period--the details of which will become
clearer in time.

Temperature Outlook for Next Week

The passage of the cold front Monday sends temperatures back to
slightly below seasonal normals for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Beyond mid-week, the interquartile temperature spread increases
to 10+ degrees owing to uncertainties in the pattern evolution.
There are an increasing number of EPS members (70-80%) that are
slower with the breakdown of our upper tropospheric ridge and
thus bring the warm sector further north into the region for
late in the week. The GEFS and AI-based guidance are less
enthusiastic on this possibility, thus have kept with the
blended NBM for the time being.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

CIGS: increasing high/mid level clouds through the night/Sunday.
Deck will continue to lower moving into Sunday night and could
experience a few hour period of MVFR along/ahead of a sfc cold
front.

WX/vsby: shower chances on the increase moving through the day
Sunday, becoming likely for Sunday night. Spatially the meso models
favor cellular development, so related impacts more likely to be
relatively short duration, but those chances will persist through
the overnight. No thunder expected.

WINDS: tighten pressure gradient will result in an increased/gusty
southerly flow starting overnight, persisting into Sunday evening.
Gusts flirting with 30 kts at KRST Sunday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skow
AVIATION.....Rieck