278
FXUS63 KARX 141824
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
125 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread light showers tonight. Amounts generally from near 1/4
to 1/2".

- Seasonably cool again Wed, milder Thu into Sat. Low to mid 70s for
many Fri.

- Periodic rain chances Thu into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Ridge-trough. Ridge-trough. Rinse and Repeat.

Steady signal in the GEFS and EPS with a progressive upper level
flow pattern that sashays ridges and troughs west to east across the
CONUS, with each feature holding court for about 2 days before
giving way to the next. All WPC clusters align with this, with minor
differences in amplitude/sharpness and timing. However, moving past
the weekend these differences become more pronounced with some
clusters completely out of phase with the others. Still progressive,
but with lower predictability in the sensible weather outcomes for a
given day.

Bottom-line: periodic rain chances with "ups and downs" in temps
through the week, but mostly hovering near or above the mid October
normals.

> TONIGHT: widespread light rain.

Expansive area of showers currently running from northern WI
westward to portions of the central/northern plains. The rain was in
response to lift from multiple sources - keying in on a variety of
weak perturbations a loft and broad low level thermodynamic lift.
Locally, the rain had to battle a dry sub cloud layer for a few
hours, but the rainfall and increase in intensity here and there
have overcome that limitation (ie, rain is making the ground).

The upper level energy could get some aid from a coupled 300 mb jet
over northern WI this evening although QG convergence is weak
through the column. Low level warm air advection might be the main
rain maker locally...with isentropic upglide on the 290:300 K
spreading west-east through the night time hours. Some potential for
elevated west-east orientated Fgen to aid lift, but the RAP holds
this mostly north of I-94. All in all, a lot of elements at play for
rainfall with the mix favoring a broad expanse of showers through
the night. Mostly light in intensity due to lack of stronger/deep
lift. PWs still sit at 1 1/4+" with NAEFS and EC anomalies around
+2. But again, with deeper/stronger lift lacking, resulting 25-75%
for QPF in the HREF rests from near 1/4 to 1/2". A similar story to
what the LREF has been telling over the past few days. The bulk of
the rain will be done by early-mid morning Wed.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR showers this afternoon and evening will give way to more robust
shower activity and lowering cigs overnight. As a low-level dry
layer observes increasing saturation, MVFR cigs along with more
robust shower activity will ensue late this evening and overnight
with the 17.12z HREF having high probabilities (70-100%) for MVFR
cigs, particularly west of the Mississippi River. There remains some
low-end probabilities (10-40%) for IFR cigs/vsby reductions at times
underneath any heavier showers. However, confidence in any IFR
reductions was too low to include in this TAF issuance. Showers will
slowly diminish in coverage during the morning hours on Wednesday
with low-level cigs remaining in place through 18z. Winds will be
from the east at around 5-10 kts throughout the TAF period. &&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION.....Naylor