672
FXUS63 KARX 010335
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1035 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple of rounds of convection expected Monday night into
  Tuesday. This could bring another round of heavy rain across
  the area. Some severe storms could occur Tuesday afternoon and
  evening.

- Additional rainfall will occur Independence Day through
  Friday. Heavy rain chances appear lower during this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Latest 19z surface analysis shows ridge over Minnesota/Wisconsin and
Iowa. Subsidence underneath ridge is providing mostly sunny skies
and light winds per latest visible satellite imagery/metars. Surface
ridge will remain the dominant weather feature tonight into much of
Monday and providing dry weather.

Then...southwesterly flow pattern develops over the Northern
Plains/Upper Great Lakes Region late Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Pieces of energy embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft and
vertical motion/moisture convergence associated with the pieces of
energy will spread showers/storms into the forecast area early
Monday evening and continue into Tuesday. The latest deterministic
models/ensembles show around two inches of precipitable water values
Monday night into Tuesday. Some of the showers/storms will be
efficient rain producers across the area. However...the
deterministic/hi-resolution models suggest showers/storms will move
quickly over the area and not back build over the same area Monday
night into Tuesday. At this time...rainfall amounts of one to two
and a half inches are expected across the forecast area from Monday
night into Tuesday evening.

Severe potential Tuesday afternoon/evening with the second round of
convection...is still dependent on how much instability builds
during the day. As trends continue to show debris clouds from Monday
night convection over the forecast area to inhibit destabilization.

Main forecast concerns Wednesday night into Sunday are shower/storm
chances mainly from Independence Day into Friday...then lesser rain
chances for next weekend. Latest deterministic/ensembles are in
better agreement in moving upper level closed low over the Northern
Plains/Upper Great Lakes region Independence Day/Friday. Decent
lift/moisture convergence in association with the upper level closed
low will spread showers/storms in into the forecast area
Independence Day. As the upper level low tracks over the forecast
area Friday...showers and a few storms will continue across much of
the forecast area. Forecast area remains under the influence of the
upper level closed low next weekend...and provides lesser
shower/storm chances across the forecast area. Temperatures through
the forecast period will mainly be in the 70s to lower to middle
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Mid to high
clouds will increase across the area on Monday ahead of the next
system. Winds will ramp up out of the southeast by late morning
with gusts of 20 to 25 knots, especially at RST. Winds remain
gusty into the evening at RST with a tightening pressure
gradient, and initial showers may move into southeast Minnesota
by the end of this TAF period before steadier rain moves in
after 06Z -- have introduced VCSH at RST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Minor to moderate flooding continues along the Mississippi River and
will continue into this week. Additional rainfall is expected Monday
night into Tuesday evening. At this time...rainfall amounts of 1 to
2.5 inches is expected across the area.  With the antecedent
conditions across the region...water levels will rise on area rivers
and flash flooding will be possible. Interests along
rivers...streams and creeks should monitor the latest forecast and
trends Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DTJ
AVIATION...Kurz
HYDROLOGY...DTJ