195
FXUS63 KARX 241059
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
559 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected today. Rain
  amounts will be minimal (<0.05") with scant (<10%) potential
  for a thunderstorm.

- Temperatures look to remain cooler than normal over the next 7
  days with a slow warming trend. Additional spotty light rain
  may occur Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon/evening.
  Rain may then return next Saturday. Hazardous weather is not
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Cooler with scattered showers today:

07z WV satellite reveals an upper low over James Bay with cyclonic
flow aloft over the Great Lakes region. Cold front pushed through
early yesterday and cooler and drier conditions have filtered into
the region with temperatures in the mid 50s and dewpoints in the
lower 50s.

Today, post-frontal light shower pattern continues as steep low
level lapse rates develop below a relatively moist 700-800mb layer.
Resulting instability should generate isolated to scattered showers
but warm temperatures in the 600-700mb layer should prevent deep
convection and thus thunderstorms from developing. Short updrafts
and increasingly dry conditions at the surface will keep rain
amounts minimal, a few hundreths at best. With heights aloft being a
bit lower than yesterday, expect highs to be a few degrees cooler,
mainly in the 60s.

Cooler than normal with a slow warming trend, occasional shower
potential Monday through Saturday:

Cyclonic flow pattern continues to dominate our weather through
Thursday with northwesterly or northerly flow aloft occurring.
Guidance suggests a few upper impulses will translate downstream
over the region and, while timing varies across guidance, best
signal appears to center on Monday afternoon and Wednesday
afternoon/evening. That said, available moisture through the column
during both of these periods looks to a major limiting factor so
have gone with no precip mentions with this update. Moving ahead to
the latter part of the week, uncertainty increases as some guidance
suggests a more zonal patter may develop. Should this occur, enough
moisture may return to the region for precip on Saturday. In any
case, long term ensemble guidance, including related ML outlooks,
suggest the chance for any hazardous weather is minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Some MVFR cumulus appears probable (60%) across the area this
morning so have added it to both the RST/LSE TAFs. As the day
goes on, expect coverage to decrease as heights increase,
yielding VFR conditions for the afternoon. Scattered light
showers are expected today but the probability for TS remains
very low (<10%) and is mainly present east of an EAU-LNR line.
Winds will tend to be northwesterly with gusts to around 25
knots this afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Ferguson