342
FNUS73 KAPX 061158
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for River Road Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
658 AM EST Mon Jan 6 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on January 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Prevailing N/NNE flow this morning...with subtle NNW component for
the Oscoda area from nocturnal offshore flow. Expecting this to become
more N with time after sunup...ultimately becoming more N/NNW later this
morning into early afternoon as a subtle disturbance moves through...though
not impossible a slight onshore NNE component to surface winds could redevelop
this afternoon. Wind gusts to 20-25mph expected this afternoon. Light snow/
flurries will continue through the day. Expecting these to taper off and/or
move offshore with time this afternoon as prevailing winds become more N/NNW.
Min RHs this afternoon in the 60 percent range as temps slightly warm this
afternoon into the low to mid 20s. Wind chills remain in the single digits
through afternoon. Prevailing winds become more NW late tonight into Tuesday...
but could see offshore surface flow again overnight. Most snow showers Tuesday
should remain well north/west of the site...with afternoon RHs dropping into
the 50 percent range.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered snow
                    showers late in the morning, then isolated snow
                    showers early in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 24.
Min humidity........68 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds 9 to 10 mph.
Transport winds.....North 20 to 22 mph.
Mixing height.......2300-3300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good to excellent (457.0-712.0).

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........94  94  93  93  91  88  86  79
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............22  22  22  22  22  23  23  22
RH..............74  74  71  71  71  68  68  71
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..13  13  13  13  13  13  13  13
20 ft wind gust.21  21  21  21  21  21  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.3
Haines index....3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.20  21  22  22  21  20  20  20
Vrate kt-ft.....539 593 700 712 658 596 534 457
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  EXL EXL EXL GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 13.
Max humidity........77 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 8 mph.
Transport winds.....North 17 to 21 mph.
Mixing height.......900-2500 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (156.0-498.0).

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........72  66  67  68  70  71  72  74  69  65  60  56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............21  21  20  19  19  19  19  18  18  17  16  15
RH..............71  71  74  77  77  77  77  77  77  77  77  77
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9   10  10  10
20 ft wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.5
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.18  18  20  20  20  17  17  17  20  21  20  20
Vrate kt-ft.....377 363 313 318 333 168 156 191 272 424 401 498
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 24.
Min humidity........53 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 8 to 9 mph.
Transport winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-3800 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good to excellent (375.0-754.0).

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  47  39  31  24  26  29  31  34  38  41  45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............15  14  14  16  18  20  21  22  22  22  22  21
RH..............73  77  75  71  68  61  56  55  53  53  54  57
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..10  10  10  12  12  12  13  13  13  12  12  12
20 ft wind gust.21  21  21  21  21  21  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.N   NW  N   N   NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.18  18  20  21  21  21  21  21  21  20  20  20
Vrate kt-ft.....449 449 375 419 489 566 652 723 754 750 724 668
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

$$
Forecaster...FEF
Requested by...Patrick Hayes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500070.0/APX
.DELDT 01/06/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patrick.d.hayes@usda.gov,patrick.d.hayes@usda.gov.