012
FNUS73 KAPX 041840
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for River Road...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
140 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on December 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Times of clouds, snow showers, and mixed precipitation throughout
the period as a system moves in today. Winds start southwest then
turn west and northwest as a cold front moves through later this
evening, with finally landing at northwest/north tonight after a
second front after midnight. 20ft winds will be gusting around 20
to 25 mph this afternoon, increasing to 30 mph tonight and into
Thursday morning. Snow showers weaken and diminish Thursday.
Stronger winds will linger through Thursday.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Areas of snow
and blowing snow through the day.
Max temperature.....Around 30.
Min humidity........58 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 12 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Transport winds.....Northwest 30 to 36 mph decreasing to around 26
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900-4100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Excellent (1060.0) decreasing to excellent
                    (778.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........59  72  71  66  76  70  64  44
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....BSN BSN BSN BSN BSN BSN BSN BSN
Tstm cov........
Temp............27  28  28  28  29  28  28  26
RH..............71  66  66  63  60  58  60  63
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..18  18  18  18  18  17  17  17
20 ft wind gust.20  22  22  22  26  26  26  26
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.6 3.0 2.9
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.35  36  36  36  36  33  30  26
Vrate kt-ft.....106011991339143314791185904 778
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Areas of blowing
                    snow early in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 15.
Max humidity........89 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 26 mph
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest 16 to 24 mph shifting to the west 10
                    to 14 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......1100-3000 ft AGL decreasing to 900-1000 ft AGL
                    after 3 am.
Ventilation index...Fair to excellent (266.0-716.0) decreasing to
                    poor to fair (89.0-188.0) overnight.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........40  48  43  32  28  28  24  20  28  35  43  53
Weather cov.....ARS
Weather type....BSN
Tstm cov........
Temp............24  23  22  21  20  19  18  18  17  17  17  17
RH..............68  71  71  71  74  77  79  80  83  86  88  89
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..14  14  14  12  12  12  8   8   8   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.26  26  26  22  22  22  16  16  16  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.7 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.23  23  24  23  21  20  18  16  14  12  10  10
Vrate kt-ft.....436 399 716 574 479 461 373 266 188 132 103 89
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  EXL GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 30.
Min humidity........57 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 21 mph increasing to 20 to 23 mph
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......900-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4400 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (98.0-414.0) increasing to
                    excellent (609.0) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........63     76     82     85     81     70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............18     21     25     28     29     28
RH..............89     85     74     62     57     60
20 ft wind dir..W      W      W      W      W      W
20 ft wind spd..7      7      12     13     13     13
20 ft wind gust.15     15     20     22     22     22
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1600   2900   3900   4400   4100
Transport wind..W 12   W 15   W 21   W 23   W 23   W 21
Vrate kt-ft.....98     245    609    899    994    850
Ventrate Cat....POOR   FAIR   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

$$
Forecaster...ELD
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427835.0/APX
.DELDT 12/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov